“…keep an eye on how Jackson Hole begins to get handicapped as it becomes more imminent. And don’t assume Friday’s CPI is guaranteed to be more of the same.”
Category: central banks
‘Quantitative Failure’ Crashes The ‘Party’
“It’s important to remember that this is merely a microcosm of the larger dynamic at play across assets and across regions.”
‘60% Of The Time, It Works Every Time’: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, well good news: we’ll get a break from potentially market-moving scheduled events this week.
Trader: Here Is The Only Way This Can End Well
“So how then might the story line read? That all this nonsense that globally rising rates and widespread balance sheet reduction just can’t be a calm experience. Investors simply own too much toxic “financial products†to make that likely.”
Grizzly Attack! Albert Edwards Says ‘January 2008 Is Here Again’
“This was last seen in 2007, just before the bursting debt bubble blew the global economy and financial system to smithereens.”
Einsteinian Insanity, The Chicken Dance, And An Autumn Market Top
But we would caution that you have now run out ahead of your fairy godmother…
The Dog Days: July In Charts
The dog days are here…
Trader: ‘Stocks Have Done Nothing Wrong & They’ll Tell You When To Sell’
“There have been no actions by the central banks that would suggest that they believe there’s benefit in being the bubble popper.”
Jobs, Central Banks, & A Mushroom Cloud Over Pyongyang: Epic Week Ahead Preview
Well, here’s hoping this week lives up to last week…
5 Tail Risks That Could ‘Spoil The Party’ & Why One Bank ‘Stopped Worrying’
“We continue to stand by the message that a window of opportunity remains open”…
Presenting: A Crazy Week In Charts
Ok, well this was an interesting week…
Survey Says! ‘Consequences Could Be Very Painful’
“We have had a liquidity-fueled bull market [and] if that is taken away, there is a pressure point.”
The Swarm Effect
“You can say no, but it is inconsequential.”
A ‘Gettin’ Away With Murder’ Type Of Day: Thursday Market Wrap
Thursday was all about people who might have gotten away with murder…
‘Things Are Starting To Reverse’: Goldman Warns On ‘Shock’ Risk
“Risky assets digested the increase in bond yields only reasonably well – 3-month equity/bond yield correlations stayed positive (Exhibit 3) and credit spreads buffered part of the increases (Exhibit 4). But correlations are starting to reverse.”
Stocks Touch Record Highs: Full Wednesday Visual Recap
“So much winning, you’re going to get tired of winning”…
This ‘Party’ Has To End Eventually – But ‘Eventually’ Isn’t Today
“…market participants are understandably worried about how they will be weaned off the current highly-liquid environment.”
Trader: ‘Algos And Dark Pools’ Are Making It Impossible To Know ‘What’s Going On’
“Poor liquidity conditions and massive block trading. Never has it been more obvious that relying solely on electronic trading has fundamentally altered how business is cleared.”
‘Billions And Billions And Billions’: ECB, BoJ, And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
If you didn’t get your fill of hand-wringing over DM central banks last week, then you’re in luck…
(In)stability In One Chart
“Indeed, measures of financial stability look stretched”…
The ‘Permanent State Of Exception And A New Status Quo’
“With traditional market rules and relationships breaking down, central banks appear to be chasing the illusive target, which means that victory and the final goal are not well defined, which in turn insures the persistence of the “battle†and indefinite continuation of the state of exception.”
Deutsche Bank: ‘The Limit Is Near’
“This episode provides a good example of just how difficult the eventual path to policy normalization is going to be.”
Stocks Fly To Records, Global Risk Rally Continues As Bad Data, ‘Good’ Yellen Keep Hope Alive
The message is loud and fucking clear: the vol. seller’s/ carry trader’s paradise and the risk party that’s made every homegamer with some SPY and QQQ look like a guru for the past eight years depends on DM central bankers staying some modicum of dovish. And on that score, bad data helps.
Trader: ‘Everyone Is Wrong But Me’
“And now? Dovish Fed speak, wavering ECB leaks, resolute BOJ actions, completely mixed emotions from the BOE and suddenly it doesn’t feel nearly as fun.”
Dow Closes At Record High – So Does Central Banker Confusion
So yeah, another day, another largely fruitless effort to figure out what exactly the message
‘Beware Global Tapering’: Behold The ‘Safe Bond Supply Shock’
What effect will Fed balance sheet normalization have on Treasury yields? That’s quickly becoming something
One Trader Won’t Tell About The Aliens In His Basement, But He’ll Talk About Price Sensitivity
“Rather, as we ponder the notion of a global regime change in monetary policy, and rates more broadly, it’s a big mistake not to consider that at some point issuers will be fighting to tap into a far more selectively inclined investor base.”
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