Perhaps the most amusing thing about it all is that it’s become so ubiquitous and reliable that it can now be summarized succinctly in the form of a bullet point (and apparently “bulletproof”) investment thesis…
Category: central banks
Trader: ‘There’s Only One Thing Standing Between This And A Full-Blown Panic’
“It grates on everything I believe, but this would be a good day to avoid putting yourself at the mercy of the algorithms. They don’t understand that while you can set a fire, arranging for a hurricane is another order of difficulty.”
Consider This A Preview: Don’t Ignore Canada’s Rate Hike
The BoC hike is important. Poloz is effectively being used as a guinea pig by DM central bankers to see what happens when you hike rates in the post-crisis era. And if you’re a market watcher in the U.S. or Europe, you should take note of what the TSX did as soon as the decision came down.
A Short’s Desperate Attempt To Put A Bearish Spin On A Manic Squeeze
“Therefore, if you believe the North Korean situation will escalate from here, then, by all means, load up on treasuries. That’s the right trade. Yet, I just don’t see war breaking out, and I suspect North Korea will slip off the front page before you know it. There are no real military options, so the idea of Trump and the rest of the world doing anything more than increasing sanctions is a non-starter. Kim Junior will keep testing his missiles, Trump will keep warning him that he will face severe consequences, and nothing will change.”
‘Good Luck, We’re All Counting On You’: Full Week Ahead Preview
To be sure, whatever you thought was going to dominate the news flow in the week ahead is probably going to take a backseat to North Korea, for obvious reasons.Â
But North Korea isn’t the only thing on traders’ minds this week. Not by a long shot.
Holiday Road.
“Well, that’s nothing to be proud of, Rusty…. 50 yaaaards.”
Riders On The Storm.
Right, so the storm wasn’t supposed to come until next month.
CBs, Market Crash, North Korea, Or ETF Nightmare: What’s The Biggest Tail Risk?
“However, the reality of the past thirty years has been a succession of bursting financial bubbles (1987, 1997, 2008), rather than inflationary spikes.”
Demons In The Hills
“There may be all sorts of dragons and monsters up in those hills.”
One Trader Explains Why Jackson Hole Was A Whole Bunch Of Nothing
“But there was a far smarter reason why Jackson Hole reverted back to an academic exercise and post-GFC policy retrospective.”
Nobody Panic.
Your refund will be escaping this death trap with your life…
Thumper Does Jackson Hole
“Frankly, if they won’t or, more likely, can’t tell us what they are planning to do, they should take a pass and stick to their economics and orthodoxies.”
One Trader Takes A ‘Dark Side Stab’ At Jackson Hole
“No, a surprise will most likely look like a Central Bank chief that attempts to put policy back on the previous tighter path.”
Trading The White Moose With Carl Icahn
“Central Banks are printing money out of thin air and buying stocks with it. Stop a moment and really take that in.”
They Love To Talk, But Hate To Communicate
“Confidently dismissing the process as harmless for markets is a luxury they can’t indulge in.”
Bears Shouldn’t ‘Overstay Their Welcome’
“One of the most dangerous things in trading is to confuse what one thinks ‘should’ happen with the forecast of what ‘will’ happen.”
Lake Placid
“But it just feels like investors are in the mood for a placid day. It’s August and we’re going to have to keep paying attention right up to Friday evening, leaving little appetite today for angst and mayhem.”
Don’t Dig Yourself A ‘Hole’: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, so strap in, because this promises to be an interesting week. August has proven
Here Are Goldman’s Brand New ‘Top FX Trades’
Ok, well Goldman has some new “top” FX trades for you – because those always
Mario Draghi Extends Martial Law – ‘State Of Exception’ Is Permanent
DRAGHI IS SAID TO NOT DELIVER FRESH POLICY AT JACKSON HOLE:RTRS
Billionaire Bears Club
“Whether it is Gross, Icahn, Gundlach, Jones or Marks, there is no shortage of billionaires warning about the impending stock market crash.”
‘Playing With Fire’ – Full Week Ahead Preview
“Deterrence counts on the rationality of the opponents. The build-up of mutual threats and the shows of force in the past weeks have unsettled markets, with risk assets and high-beta currencies underperforming, and it is likely to continue.”
The Arborist
“Left to its own devices your portfolio will grow wildly — not to structural ruin, but to structural inefficiency.”
‘Dependency’ And A Magically Shrinking Free Float
“Amid a growing stock of assets owned by the central banks on a global scale, the free float of available assets has declined and thus volatility has subsided significantly.”
One Trader Remembers A Time When Being Bearish As Hell Meant You Were Short
” I can’t imagine telling my trading boss or one of the limited partners that I’m bearish as all get-out. But instead respond to the logical question, “Great, how many are we short?†with, “No, no, I’m long because it’s the only way I can figure out how to make money.â€
Caution Needed: ‘Draghi In Mirror Is Closer Than He Appears’
“…keep an eye on how Jackson Hole begins to get handicapped as it becomes more imminent. And don’t assume Friday’s CPI is guaranteed to be more of the same.”
‘Quantitative Failure’ Crashes The ‘Party’
“It’s important to remember that this is merely a microcosm of the larger dynamic at play across assets and across regions.”
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