“So we function in a world where risk assets keep going up while we couch everything in risk-off terms. It’s not enough that our central bankers think they can play with our heads under the fiction that they are masters of nuance, we do it to ourselves.”
Category: 10Y
China Just Murdered The Yuan Bears
The PBoC has spoken and markets, at least for the time being, have listened. Coming
It’s Official: “We Can Lay The Trump Reflation Euphoria To Rest”
“Still, when confronted with a choice of positioning for mean reversion or extremes to get more extreme, given the current level of market uncertainty I’ll choose the first one every time.”
“The Honeymoon Period Is Over” – Bullard Ain’t Buyin’ Trump And Other Overnight News
“Washington does have to deliver at some point and I think that is a concern going forward, whether the honeymoon period would end at some point and maybe the reality of American politics would settle in.”
Does It Only Get Steeper From Here?
“Typically, excessive overweight implies subsequent sell off and vice versa. Spec positioning data, both levels and changes, is a contrarian indicator of subsequent rate changes.”
Everything You Need To Know For The Week Ahead
Well, it’s Sunday which means normally, you’d be thinking about Monday, but this weekend you
Specs Now Net Long Treasurys For First Time Since July, Most Long 10Y Since 2007
Well, if you’re the type of person who has been conditioned to believe that “smart”
Trader: We Are Living In A World Of “Consciously Derived Bubbles”
“Where did the feel-good vibe of equities making new highs every day and we’re all getting rich go?”
Strategist: Go To The Party But For God’s Sake, “Know Where The Nearest Exit Is”
“There’s certainly no guarantee that the party stops any time soon. Maybe I am just a grumpy macro man, but even when attending the party, I am going to make sure I know where the nearest exits are located.”
Trader: This Market Needs A Healthy Dose Of “Blunt-Force Trauma”
“The errors weren’t policy mistakes from the Fed or BOE, but from investment banks-turned-hedge funds that refused to listen to what they were being told and fought the tightening cycle every step of the way.”
Guest Post: A Bearish Positive Carry Trade
“This has long been one of my favourite trades, and even though it has moved my way, I am not taking any off. In fact, now that it is working, I probably should be adding…”
Storm Clouds Gather As Trump Headline Risk, Terror Attack Battle Econ Data For Market’s Heart
Well, this market’s mettle is being tested. Again. On Monday evening we got what might
“Thy Orb And Thy Staff They Comfort Me”: “Risk Feels A Bit Better Today!”
Yea, though we walk through the valley of the shadow of death, we will fear no geopolitical tail risk: for Donald Trump art with us; thy orb and thy staff they comfort me…
Trader: The “Goldilocks Environment For Equities Is Here For A Long While Yet”
“This isn’t a short-term signal, but it does suggest that the long- term Goldilocks environment for equities is here for a long while yet.”
Chart Check: “Nothing To See Here”
Please disperse.
“Sharks In The Sea Of Tranquility” – Looking Ahead
So what did we learn last week? Well, we learned that despite what amounts to
Chart Of The Day: “Premature Abdication”
Leading indicator?
“President’s Day”: Iran Is Voting, Brazil Is Panicking, Trump Is Traveling
It feels quiet in America on Friday morning. Maybe that’s because Donald Trump is leaving
Assuming You Think America Is Still A Democracy, Here’s How To Think About Markets & Trump
“In a democracy like the US the main impact of elevated political uncertainty is higher risk of inaction”…
Trader: What You’ve Seen Unwound Is “Just The Tip Of The Iceberg”
“It’s vital, therefore, to remind yourself that these moves, while portrayed as dramatic, represent only the very tip of the iceberg of positions built up over a very long period of time and in massive size.”
Risk Appetite Evaporates As 18 More Contacts Between Trump, Russian “Godfather” Revealed
Everything was going (relatively) ok and then…
Trader: I Don’t See What The Big Deal Is, Bears Should Go Back To Hibernating
“This risk aversion was driven by political noise and speculation. That just doesn’t provide sufficient calorie intake for bears. This isn’t to say that we can’t get a fundamentally negative development in the days ahead, but unless we do, expect the bears to be back in hibernation by the weekend.”
Trader: I’m “Appalled,” “Repulsed” By The “Shenanigans” But…
“Don’t for a second think I’m not appalled by the shenanigans. The lack of dignity alone is enough to repulse.”
Global Markets Shudder: Impeachment “Makes It Difficult For Investors To Buy”
“I suppose the question is whether these are US political rain showers like the ones drenching London’s commuters, or real storms with lasting damage.”
Trader: Stocks Are “Acting Like The Last Honest Man In Town”
“Equities investors are acting like the last honest man in town. Couldn’t care less about politics, geo or domestic. And aren’t ashamed to admit it. Give ’em tax cuts and deregulation and they’re happy. Throw in repatriation holidays to fund buybacks and they’re ecstatic. Add the sovereign wealth funds and they won’t even give you a dip to buy. Earnings per share is as outdated a concept as value investing. It is what it is, until it ain’t.”
“It’s Funny Because It’s Treason”: Global Markets Jittery As Trump Makes New Lows
We start Tuesday on a treasonous note… So because he’s President, Donald Trump gets some
China Rolling Over + Ballistic Missile Test By Hermit Regime = “Monday Risk-Friendly Tone”
“The weekend news – softer industrial production, Capex and retail sales in China, higher oil prices as Saudi Arabia and Russia agree that output cuts should be extended through Q1 2018, a North Korean ballistic missile test – sees us start in mild risk-friendly tone.”
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