The latest CFTC data is out and this week’s release is notable for a number
Category: 10Y
Trader: They Ruined My Day, But Stocks Are Still “In A World Of Their Own”
“And then events tried to conspire to rob me of all of my sanguineness”…
Traders Be Like “WTF?!” As Trump Is Desperate Despot, Nuclear War Beckons
So the elephant in the room is clearly Donald Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director
Trader: “The World’s A Scary Place,” But That’s Always Been The Case
“To be fair, we still have loads of quantitative easing going on and the world remains a scary place. But it’s always been a scary place. We just have selective, as well as short, memories. And if black swans remain your major investing concern, then economic numbers are of very little import.”
It’s Too Quiet: Except For China. And South Korea. And Collapsing Metals.
It’s Tuesday, and they’re voting in South Korea. There’s an annoying power vacuum over there
“Nazi-Be-Gone” Rally Fizzles As Female Hitler Loss Seen Largely Priced In
Ok, so it’s Monday and France didn’t elect a fascist. So we’ve got that going for
This Is What A Contrarian Indicator Looks Like
“In the month following that extreme short positioning reading, 10y rates rallied 16bp as specs closed out almost the entirety of their shorts. 10y rates are lower by 30bp since their 13 March close. Positioning has now swung the other way, and we think this bodes well for bond bears over the next month.”
“It’s None Of The Above”: One Trader Answers The Big Question
“You have to get your head around the fact that bond buying isn’t at all necessarily a sign of concern but an indication of an inclination to ramp up other risk taking investments.”
“America, Fuck Yeah!” Congress Thinks Funding Government May Be Good Idea After All
Last week, it was starting to look like traders had reached peak negativity with regard
Poof, It’s Gone! Specs Cover Treasury Short, Now Most Long 10Y Since 2008
If ever there were a sign that the market is fading the reflation narrative or
If The Curve Doesn’t Get Steeper Soon, One Strategist Is Going To Lose His Mind
So you should care about the evolution of rates strategists’ forecasts for the yield curve
“Don’t Believe The Hype”: 2 Charts Suggest Central Banks Are Not All Powerful
“It’s always a good idea to challenge preconceived notions by delving into the data. Sometimes we find our convictions are strengthened, which gives us the confidence to look through market noise. Occasionally, however, we find an answer other than the one we’re looking for.”
Today’s Word Is “Bigly”: Here Comes Trump’s Terrific, Tremendous, Tax Plan
Today’s word is “bigly.” No wait, “phenomenal.” No wait, “massive.” Yeah, that’s it. “Massive.” All
It’s Tuesday And This Market “Sees No Demons”
“With French political risk significantly reduced (even if there’s still a two-week second round campaign to negotiate), an improving global economy, steadier oil prices, and most of all, range-bound US yields and a lack of fear of rapid Fed tightening, investors see few demons and are off in search of yield.”
Warning: “Cliches May Be Boring,” But Nature Does “Abhor A Vacuum”
“Given the large number of gaps that have developed over the weekend because of the French election, traders will no doubt wonder how seriously to take the traditional warning.”
Hellz Yeah! European Stocks Explode, US Set To Rally As Market Celebrates Macron
The final tally was Macron 23.75%, Le Pen 21.53% and to say markets are relieved
Risk-On! S&P Futs Jump, Treasurys Dumped With Yen As Markets Cheer Macron
As tipped by the knee-jerk reaction in EURUSD and EURJPY, the “market-friendly” outcome from the
“OPEC Has A Deal!” Buy Euros! Wait, There’s A French Election? Welcome To Thursday.
Let’s start with oil real quick, because there are some notable headlines on Thursday morning.
Worth Mentioning Or Not So Much? Bond Bears Get A “Rude Awakening”
“Not long ago we were often asked why our 2.5% end-March 2017 forecast for 10-year US Treasury yields was so low. Now, the most recurrent questions are how much further can bond yields fall, and what will it take to bring them back to the top of the Q1 range by end-June.”
“Keep ‘Em Guessing” And Avoid A Crisis
“While the FOMC shouldn’t wrong-foot the financial markets just for the sake of it, by the same token, keeping them guessing a bit more could raise market risk premia — and perhaps reduce the chance of another crisis.”
Guest Post: “We’re All Yen Traders Now”
“I warned you that I wouldn’t have any answers in today’s post, but I implore you to stick the Yen up your screen and watch it like a hawk – it’s likely that any serious market dislocation will first show up in the movement of the Yen.”
A “Soggy” Bottom Morning
“Soggy US housing starts and soggy industrial production data just reinforced the soggy message from last week’s figures, and with it the growing sense that the inflation peak is earlier and lower than many feared.”
Is It Just Me, Or Was That A Nightmare?
You know, I don’t do a lot of “that’s a wrap” or “the day that
Trader: “The Word Of The Month Is Going To Be ‘Frazzled'”
” The problem is, market pricing notwithstanding, nerves remain frayed. And markets may find that short-term volatility, in both directions, remains higher than is comfortable for most people.”
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