Fed’s Favorite Econ Indicator Slips As Monday’s Data Comes Up Short

Here’s Monday’s key econ data (note the bolded bits):

  • U.S. March Personal Income Rose 0.2%; Est. Up 0.3%
  • Personal consumption was unchanged; est. up 0.2%
  • Personal consumption forecast range -0.2% to 0.4% from 72 economists
  • Personal income forecast range 0% to 0.4% from 73 economists
  • Real personal spending rose 0.3%; est. up 0.4%
  • Core inflation fell 0.1%; est. -0.1%; rose 1.6% Y/y
  • PCE prices fell 0.2%; est. -0.2%; rose 1.8% Y/y (first decline since February last year)
  • Compensation at 0.1% in March vs 0.4% the prior month
  • Savings rate at 5.9% in March vs 5.7% the prior month

The knee-jerk is predictable but, thanks to the risk-on bump we got last night from the deal on Capitol Hill, we had a cushion…



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