“That’s all a sign of acceptance of looming rate moves coupled with the depressing expectation that some politician is going to make a bad mistake down the road.”
Category: 10Y
A Hard Narrative To Ignore…
“Never mind that the tax plan will struggle to get through congress and don’t worry that the Fed might be making a policy mistake. Those are issues for another time, not this week.”
‘Keep One Eye On Left Field’: Here Are The Most Important Q4 Market Themes
“As always, keep one eye on left field for the “unknown unknown” that could shift the market’s thinking.”
What, No Nukes?
There’s always tomorrow.
Monday Bloody Monday.
There will be blood.
‘Tell That To Rain Man’
“Either way, you gotta be super smart to run a country and sell vol. buddy, okay? It’s not easy.”
Trader: My Glass Is Half Full So Don’t Ruin It For Me, Ok?
“And yet, I almost feel like I’m being an iconoclast by choosing to take a sip from a glass half full.”
What The Heck Is Goin’ On?
“The truth of the matter is that the market doesn’t know how to interpret the Fed.”
1 Million.
“It’s not crazy”…
La, La, La.
Finally, in case you haven’t had enough of “connecting the dots” today, here’s another exercise for you…
Dollar, Yields Rise While Stocks, Gold Dip On ‘Hawkish’ Fed
The Fed still sees another hike in 2017, perhaps proving that they are in fact leaning in the direction of looking through subdued inflation in the interest of safeguarding financial stability.Â
Two Hundred And Seventeen Years.
Wouldn’t it be super-fun if someone looked at bonds and equities from 15 DM countries going back 217 years and then made an equally weighted index to find out how expensive things really are versus history?Â
‘Run, Forrest. Run.’
“… the bears could catch up into year-end.”
Apocalypse Now (Again).
Well for those who had their doom bunkers all prepped and ready, there’s “good” news on Tuesday – the apocalypse is back on.
What’s The Most Expensive Asset This Week?
Paging 2 Chainz…
Watching Paint Dry. Illogically.
As one reader put it earlier today, “is just being open for trading” a good enough reason for stocks to rally?Â
‘Chickens Wanted For Epic Showdown’: Rates Vol., Gamma Are Too Cheap!
“…game theory suggests that the North Korean leadership has a strong incentive to bring forward the final phase of the Game of Chicken.”
You May Have Had A Better Week Than Some Quants
…it’s fair to ask if maybe the CTA crowd had a bad week. Because long Treasurys and short USD wasn’t exactly how one would have wanted to be positioned ahead of the “no apocalypse” risk rally that saw 10Y yields rip 18bps higher off the previous Friday’s lows while the dollar put in one of its best five-day stretches of 2017.
Them’s Fightin’ Words.
There’s tension in the air.
S&P Futures Under Pressure As North Korea Has ICBM All Gassed Up And Ready
Ok, well just hours after North Korea threatened to “sink” Japan with “the nuclear bomb of Juche,” reports suggest Pyongyang is readying another missile launch.
Citing an unnamed Japanese official, Nikkei news says a missile is being prepared for launch and has the engine for liquid fuel, suggesting it’s an ICBM.
CPI Beats, Dollar, Yields Jump
CPI rose 0.4% vs est. 0.3%
Forecast range from up 0.2% to up 0.4% from 76 estimates
Ex. food, energy up 0.2% vs est. 0.2%
CPI y/y rose 1.9% vs est. 1.8%
You Should Have Just Gone To The Bar.
Generally speaking, this week’s theme (reflation back on in the U.S. as stocks, the dollar, and yields all rise in tandem) held, as there was no news “bigly” enough to change the narrative.
Breaking: September 25 Is The New Date For Abject Failure On Tax Reform
Well, fast forward another five months and we’re supposed to believe that all will be revealed in less than two weeks.
Just Make Sure You’re Hedged.
You’d probably be wise to do the same.
Have You Heard The One About Janet Yellen And The Hurricanes?
So when it looked like the last, lonely U.S. reflationist was about to throw in the towel, it felt like everyone was suddenly scrambling around to explain why yields were too low – maybe in an attempt to appease the market Gods who are thought to dislike crowded trades.
Make Risk Great Again.
Now stay tuned to find out if Kim bought some VXX today on the cheap so he can fire off an ICBM this evening and make a few million to put towards his next H-bomb.
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