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Author: therealheisenberg

BIS Not On The Trump Train

June 29, 2025July 1, 2025

“Blah, blah, blah.” That’s what Donald Trump heard when he read the latest annual report

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No Kings Week

June 29, 2025June 30, 2025

It’s another holiday week in the US, where Americans will celebrate that fateful day when

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4 Comments on No Kings Week

US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?

June 28, 2025June 30, 2025

Six months in, 2025’s been — how should I put this? — interesting, to employ

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4 Comments on US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?

Behold: The Fastest Bear Market Recovery Ever

June 27, 2025June 30, 2025

Fast and furious. That’s Donald Trump in his second term. Whether you attribute the breakneck

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3 Comments on Behold: The Fastest Bear Market Recovery Ever

Bubble Watch

June 27, 2025June 29, 2025

We’re on the cusp of a new bubble. Maybe. With US equities back at records,

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3 Comments on Bubble Watch

Goldilocks Doesn’t Live Here

June 27, 2025June 29, 2025

This week’s marquee US macro release missed on pretty much every account. On Friday, the

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4 Comments on Goldilocks Doesn’t Live Here

A ‘Pennsylvania Plan’ To Cope With America’s ‘Explosive Debt’

June 26, 2025July 1, 2025

There’s still nothing like a consensus on whether Donald Trump, through word and deed, is

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8 Comments on A ‘Pennsylvania Plan’ To Cope With America’s ‘Explosive Debt’

Trump’s ‘Revenge Tax’ Is Dead

June 26, 2025June 27, 2025

One of Donald Trump’s worst-ever ideas (and that’s really saying something) is dead. On Thursday

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3 Comments on Trump’s ‘Revenge Tax’ Is Dead

Bomb-Ast

June 26, 2025June 27, 2025

“The Islamic Republic emerged victorious,” Ali Khamenei declared, in a video message filmed from an

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6 Comments on Bomb-Ast

Contract Signings Limp Higher In Beset US Housing

June 26, 2025June 26, 2025

“Good news” is probably too strong, but under the onerous circumstances, it’s fair to describe

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Brake Slam

June 26, 2025June 27, 2025

Guess what? The spending impulse in America was negligible during the first three months of

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1 Comment on Brake Slam

Miki Delivers

June 25, 2025

Miki Bowman’s paying off for Wall Street already. Just weeks after assuming a role which

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2 Comments on Miki Delivers

The World’s Always Ending. Stocks Rarely Care.

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

Market participants on Wednesday expressed varying degrees of incredulity at the resilience on display in

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21 Comments on The World’s Always Ending. Stocks Rarely Care.

New US Home Sales Plunge, Inventory Piles Skyward

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

New home sales ran at a slower-than-expected pace in the US last month, disappointing government

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3 Comments on New US Home Sales Plunge, Inventory Piles Skyward

Volatility-Targeting Models Poised For Biggest-Ever Stock-Buying Spree

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

Earlier this week, in “Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery,” I spent some

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3 Comments on Volatility-Targeting Models Poised For Biggest-Ever Stock-Buying Spree

‘A Good Friend. I Trust Him.’

June 25, 2025June 26, 2025

“Donald, you will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,” Mark Rutte

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6 Comments on ‘A Good Friend. I Trust Him.’

Could The Fed Surprise With A July ‘Insurance’ Cut?

June 24, 2025

As discussed here on Tuesday morning, I think the odds of a Fed cut at

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2 Comments on Could The Fed Surprise With A July ‘Insurance’ Cut?

Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

Higher now, lower later. That’s been the equities refrain from Nomura’s Charlie McElligott for the

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14 Comments on Behind The Scenes Of Wall Street’s V-Shaped Recovery

Powell Endures Congressional ‘Work Over’

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

At 1:32 AM on Tuesday, while — I don’t know — finding his way to

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4 Comments on Powell Endures Congressional ‘Work Over’

Trump Loses It: Israel, Iran ‘Don’t Know What The F-ck They’re Doing’

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

Furious. That was Donald Trump early Tuesday. He wasn’t mad at Iran. Well, he was,

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21 Comments on Trump Loses It: Israel, Iran ‘Don’t Know What The F-ck They’re Doing’

US Consumer Confidence Back To Melting

June 24, 2025June 25, 2025

It didn’t last. The surge in US consumer confidence triggered by the perception of a

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Peace Through Crazy

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Hand him that Nobel he’s always wanted. Late Monday in the US (early Tuesday in

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9 Comments on Peace Through Crazy

Risky Business

June 23, 2025

Donald Trump’s a risky proposition. Just in general, but particularly as President of the United

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Fireworks In Qatar

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Iran wasted some missiles it couldn’t spare on Monday taking pointless pot shots at the

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8 Comments on Fireworks In Qatar

In US Housing, Total Gridlock

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Existing home sales managed a minuscule uptick in the US last month, data released on

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11 Comments on In US Housing, Total Gridlock

Tariff Inflation Evident In Otherwise Decent US PMIs

June 23, 2025June 24, 2025

Demand’s holding up, but price pressures are evident. That was the overarching message from preliminary

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2 Comments on Tariff Inflation Evident In Otherwise Decent US PMIs

The Gambler

June 23, 2025June 23, 2025

Iran on Monday branded Donald Trump a “gambler” for weekend strikes on the country’s nuclear

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25 Comments on The Gambler

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • growly on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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