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Author: therealheisenberg

‘All That Matters’

June 26, 2022June 29, 2022

A raft of data and a dash of Fedspeak should help traders refine the macro

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4 Comments on ‘All That Matters’

Crash

June 25, 2022June 27, 2022

Some of the best films are structured such that audiences are compelled to consider the

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6 Comments on Crash

The Stark Reality Of Modern Stock Market Rallies

June 25, 2022June 26, 2022

If you’re concerned that households, by far the largest owners of the US equity market

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14 Comments on The Stark Reality Of Modern Stock Market Rallies

Fed Up

June 24, 2022June 26, 2022

Jim Bullard wants to “nip inflation in the bud before it gets entrenched in the

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8 Comments on Fed Up

America Has An Existential Credibility Problem

June 24, 2022July 3, 2022

The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade on Friday, exacerbating a national firestorm and deepening

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26 Comments on America Has An Existential Credibility Problem

Kolanovic Says Stocks May Soar 7% Next Week

June 24, 2022June 28, 2022

Could rebalancing flows help US stocks log their largest weekly gain since November of 2020?

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New Home Sales Jump As Average Prices Drop Third Most Ever

June 24, 2022June 27, 2022

Reports of the housing bubble’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Or at least that’s what a

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4 Comments on New Home Sales Jump As Average Prices Drop Third Most Ever

Hard Landing Panic Has Markets Rethinking Central Bank Bets

June 24, 2022June 24, 2022

Central banks have succeeded. In engineering a recession scare. Rate hike bets were trimmed again

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4 Comments on Hard Landing Panic Has Markets Rethinking Central Bank Bets

150 Years Of History Says S&P Falls Another 15%. At Least

June 23, 2022June 24, 2022

It’ll seem obvious in hindsight, as all things do. If the post-pandemic rally in equities

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6 Comments on 150 Years Of History Says S&P Falls Another 156. At Least

Cash!

June 23, 2022July 2, 2022

On one measure, real money investors’ allocation to cash is the highest in more than

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1 Comment on Cash!

US Economy Witnessing ‘Remarkable’ Drop In Demand

June 23, 2022June 27, 2022

The US economy is downshifting in real time. On the heels of similarly underwhelming anecdotal

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4 Comments on US Economy Witnessing ‘Remarkable’ Drop In Demand

2022 Is Worst Year For US Bonds Since George Washington

June 23, 2022June 24, 2022

The first five months of 2022 were cruel for bonds. That much you probably know.

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1 Comment on 2022 Is Worst Year For US Bonds Since George Washington

ECB Nightmare: Europe Sees ‘Most Abrupt’ Slowdown Since 2008

June 23, 2022June 23, 2022

The ECB is in a real bind. European economic activity decelerated markedly in June, PMIs

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Leave a Comment on ECB Nightmare: Europe Sees ‘Most Abrupt’ Slowdown Since 2008

Germany Faces ‘Lehman Effect’ In Gas Standoff With Putin

June 23, 2022June 29, 2022

Germany’s energy crisis heated up on Thursday, when Economy Minister Robert Habeck raised the country’s

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6 Comments on Germany Faces ‘Lehman Effect’ In Gas Standoff With Putin

Bear Market Bender

June 22, 2022June 24, 2022

Risk sentiment looks poised to oscillate for the next several weeks. Meandering price action will

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1 Comment on Bear Market Bender

Jerome Powell, Professional Fall Guy

June 22, 2022June 29, 2022

It wasn’t so long ago when Jerome Powell readily expressed confidence in the Fed’s capacity

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4 Comments on Jerome Powell, Professional Fall Guy

Albert Edwards Gently Warns Of Imminent ‘Collapse,’ ‘Meltdown’

June 22, 2022June 23, 2022

By and large, market commentators now begrudgingly concede that the odds of a US recession

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8 Comments on Albert Edwards Gently Warns Of Imminent ‘Collapse,’ ‘Meltdown’

We’ve Been Lying To Ourselves About Central Banks And Inflation

June 22, 2022June 23, 2022

Investors eyed Jerome Powell’s first day of Congressional testimony on Wednesday. Traders were “bracing for

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20 Comments on We’ve Been Lying To Ourselves About Central Banks And Inflation

From Kelton To Krugman To Dalio: A Recession Diary

June 21, 2022July 3, 2022

Humans harbor a perverse fascination with calamity. I revisit this topic from time to time.

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11 Comments on From Kelton To Krugman To Dalio: A Recession Diary

I Can Get You In Something Used For $407,600

June 21, 2022June 22, 2022

It could’ve been worse. Existing home sales fell last month, the first of this week’s

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4 Comments on I Can Get You In Something Used For $407,600

The ‘Unpleasant’ Specter Of Economic Decline

June 21, 2022June 22, 2022

There’s no such thing as a “good” recession. Only less bad ones. If you have

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1 Comment on The ‘Unpleasant’ Specter Of Economic Decline

Goldman Doubles Recession Odds For Next 12 Months

June 21, 2022June 27, 2022

“Encouragingly, economic activity has decelerated,” Goldman’s David Mericle and Ronnie Walker wrote, while reassessing the

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4 Comments on Goldman Doubles Recession Odds For Next 12 Months

Bear Market Won’t End Until Recession Question Answered: Wilson

June 21, 2022June 23, 2022

The bear market in equities won’t be over “until recession arrives or the risk of

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6 Comments on Bear Market Won’t End Until Recession Question Answered: Wilson

The Sad, Sad Story Of $3 Trillion In Pandemic Savings

June 20, 2022July 2, 2022

You’ve heard it again and again: Major developed economies, including and especially the world’s largest,

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12 Comments on The Sad, Sad Story Of $3 Trillion In Pandemic Savings

Profit Reckoning Nears For Corporate America

June 20, 2022June 23, 2022

I’ve mentioned the prospect of a reprieve for beleaguered equities in the near-term. Sentiment is

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7 Comments on Profit Reckoning Nears For Corporate America

Fed Panic: Why This Is Not A Drill

June 19, 2022June 30, 2022

It’ll be all housing data and Fedspeak in a holiday-shortened US trading week. Anyone who

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21 Comments on Fed Panic: Why This Is Not A Drill

Of Recessions And Bears

June 19, 2022June 21, 2022

US stocks are in a bear market. Maybe you noticed. A recession is either inevitable

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1 Comment on Of Recessions And Bears

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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