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Author: therealheisenberg

Fed, Markets Now ‘Paying The Price’ Of Infamous Powell Pivot

June 19, 2022June 20, 2022

After a dozen years of accommodative monetary policy, markets have lost the capacity to fully

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1 Comment on Fed, Markets Now ‘Paying The Price’ Of Infamous Powell Pivot

Cathie Wood Tells Goldman: The Dream Is Alive

June 18, 2022June 20, 2022

The world is changing. Nobody knows that better than Cathie Wood. Wood’s meteoric rise was

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14 Comments on Cathie Wood Tells Goldman: The Dream Is Alive

Crypto End Game Goes Through DeFi’s Black Box

June 18, 2022June 25, 2022

An already dire situation in the cryptoverse took another ominous turn Saturday, when Bitcoin dropped

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9 Comments on Crypto End Game Goes Through DeFi’s Black Box

‘It’s Not Inevitable’

June 17, 2022June 19, 2022

However things turned out during Friday’s US session, this week was destined for inscription in

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5 Comments on ‘It’s Not Inevitable’

Breaking The Bank Of Japan? It Won’t Be Easy

June 17, 2022June 24, 2022

“It’s not appropriate to tighten policy now.” That quote, from Haruhiko Kuroda, summarizes Friday’s uneventful

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2 Comments on Breaking The Bank Of Japan? It Won’t Be Easy

Esther George Calls Big Fed Hike ‘Abrupt,’ ‘Unsettling’

June 17, 2022June 21, 2022

Esther George is a hawk. Or at least that’s what everyone thought, until she dissented

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3 Comments on Esther George Calls Big Fed Hike ‘Abrupt,’ ‘Unsettling’

Beware The Credit Canaries

June 17, 2022June 18, 2022

When asked to identify “the most likely reason” for a prospective pause in the Fed’s

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America’s Recession Obsession

June 16, 2022June 27, 2022

The financial pages were a veritable compendium of doom on Thursday, as US equities careened

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4 Comments on America’s Recession Obsession

Bear With Me

June 16, 2022June 17, 2022

Yesterday’s “the Fed is getting on top of inflation” was today’s “the Fed is struggling

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6 Comments on Bear With Me

Mortgage Rates Surge Most Since 1987 As Housing Bubble Pops

June 16, 2022June 23, 2022

Housing starts aren’t supposed to be falling yet. Theoretically, higher rates should only impact starts

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7 Comments on Mortgage Rates Surge Most Since 1987 As Housing Bubble Pops

SNB ‘Bombshell’ Could Open Pandora’s Box

June 16, 2022June 21, 2022

If you had “SNB hike” on your bingo card this week, congratulations. The Swiss National

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3 Comments on SNB ‘Bombshell’ Could Open Pandora’s Box

A Hopeless, Hapless BoE Hikes Rates Again As Downturn Looms

June 16, 2022June 16, 2022

The Bank of England hiked rates for a fifth consecutive meeting on Thursday, in line

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‘Failure Isn’t An Option’: Powell Says Fed To Prevail Over Inflation

June 15, 2022June 16, 2022

“Clearly, this is an unusually large” rate hike, Jerome Powell said, while speaking to the

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7 Comments on ‘Failure Isn’t An Option’: Powell Says Fed To Prevail Over Inflation

Fed Hikes Rates Most Since 1994 In Dramatic Mea Culpa

June 15, 2022June 21, 2022

The Fed hiked rates by the most since 1994 on Wednesday, in a decision that

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5 Comments on Fed Hikes Rates Most Since 1994 In Dramatic Mea Culpa

Everywhere You Look, Markets Are Breaking

June 15, 2022June 16, 2022

Traders are learning to live with outsized moves and pervasive cross-asset volatility. Or, if they

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1 Comment on Everywhere You Look, Markets Are Breaking

US Retail Sales ‘Unexpectedly’ Fall Amid Consumer Angst

June 15, 2022June 17, 2022

US retail sales unexpectedly fell in May, data out Wednesday showed. The 0.3% decline from

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8 Comments on US Retail Sales ‘Unexpectedly’ Fall Amid Consumer Angst

ECB Panics Four Business Days After Confirming Policy Pivot

June 15, 2022June 16, 2022

The ECB has seen enough. Already. Just four business days after confirming the imminent onset

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6 Comments on ECB Panics Four Business Days After Confirming Policy Pivot

Key Data Shows Chinese Economy Stuck In Neutral

June 14, 2022June 19, 2022

Chinese economic activity perked up in May, crucial activity data out Wednesday suggested, but the

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Coinbase Is Losing A Few Team Members

June 14, 2022June 15, 2022

If it seems like less than two weeks ago when Coinbase’s Chief People Officer, L.J.

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5 Comments on Coinbase Is Losing A Few Team Members

What Could Force A Fed Pivot? $800 Billion Sees Five Catalysts

June 14, 2022June 25, 2022

The “Bostic pause” story was a cruel canard. That much is now clear. In a

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5 Comments on What Could Force A Fed Pivot? $800 Billion Sees Five Catalysts

US Producer Prices Notch Sixth Straight Double-Digit Increase

June 14, 2022June 14, 2022

US producer prices rose at a double-digit 12-month rate for a sixth consecutive month in

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2 Comments on US Producer Prices Notch Sixth Straight Double-Digit Increase

Fed Spiral: 50 Was The New 25. Now 75 Is The New 50

June 14, 2022June 16, 2022

75bps Fed hike increments would’ve sounded positively ludicrous a mere six months ago. Now, they’re

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US Small Business Outlook Hits Another 48-Year Record Low

June 14, 2022July 2, 2022

Small business “optimism” looked suspiciously like pessimism in May, the latest NFIB survey, released on

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Sentiment ‘Dire’ As Growth Outlook Collapses In Key Investor Survey

June 14, 2022June 20, 2022

Global growth optimism fell to its lowest levels on record and sentiment is “dire.” That’s

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Markets Brace For Impact As Fed Whisperer Tips 75

June 13, 2022June 14, 2022

Headed into the new week, I suggested on multiple occasions that the market was on

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12 Comments on Markets Brace For Impact As Fed Whisperer Tips 75

The Crypto Universe Is Imploding

June 13, 2022June 21, 2022

Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies more generally, were in all kinds of trouble at the beginning of

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9 Comments on The Crypto Universe Is Imploding

Kolanovic Says Rates ‘Went Too Far,’ Fed May ‘Surprise Dovishly’

June 13, 2022June 14, 2022

“We believe rates market repricing went too far and the Fed will surprise dovishly relative

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

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To Be Happy

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Hell Or High Fashion

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