2023’s “year of the bond” mantra continues to disappoint investors who mistook a narrative for
Author: therealheisenberg
Goldman’s Rubner Warns On Liquidity, 0DTEs, Bearish Seasonal
“This is no longer a buy-the-dip market.” That’s according to Goldman’s Scott Rubner, who’s enjoyed
Panic Grips Chinese Markets As Beijing Ramps Up FX Intervention
I’d apologize for spending so much time on China’s multi-faceted, rapidly worsening economic crisis if
CTAs Likely Sold $40 Billion Into Recent Stock Swoon
Dealers shedding VIX futures into expiration might’ve put a lid on vol, but it wasn’t
China Sends Police To Zhongzhi Investors’ Doors As Crisis Spirals
“Knock, knock.” “Who is it?” “It’s the police. We’re here about your high-yield savings account.
FX Markets On Alert As Yen Breaches Intervention Level
FX traders are once again on yen intervention watch. The Japanese currency on Wednesday weakened
Is Helicopter Money The Only Option For China?
If you’re a Chinese mutual fund, Xi Jinping would prefer you didn’t sell stocks right
China’s Shadow Banks May Face $40 Billion In Property Losses
“Why doesn’t the company pay us back?” wondered an irritable investor in a trust product
Fed Minutes As Expected. Two Officials Favored No Hike Last Month
A pair of Fed officials favored keeping rates on hold at last month’s policy gathering,
UK’s Inflation Problem Persists. Does It Even Matter?
Inflation fell markedly (and in some sense mechanically) in the UK last month, but another
Single-Family Building Drives Rebound In US Housing Starts
US housing starts rebounded last month after suffering a bad hangover from spring’s binge-building. At
Are US Stocks About To Get Interesting?
Two days into a week that should’ve been quiet if you forget about the seasonal
$635 Billion Is The Least Bearish Since Fed Liftoff
Two months ago, I wondered if equity bulls were about to “lose their best friend.”
Yuan Depreciation Is ‘Red Flag’ With China At ‘Desperate Juncture’
It’s fair to say China’s economic woes are the most important story in the macro
Builder Sentiment Drops, Home Depot Beats, Buffett Buys
For the first time this year, US homebuilder sentiment declined. After dropping every month in
The Russian Ruble Is Collapsing. Here’s What To Know
With apologies to all the… I don’t know, ruble fans (?) out there, the Russian
US Retail Sales Blow Away Estimates. Empire Fed Gauge Weak
Notwithstanding the scattered protestations of those desperately seeking confirmation bias for “slowdown” narratives that didn’t
China Cuts Rates Most Since 2020 Amid Disastrous Data
While previewing the release of key activity data for the Chinese economy, I not-so-gently suggested
A Critical, Obvious, Underappreciated Point About Real Rates
On countless occasions over the past 12 or so months, Fed critics insisted that despite
Kolanovic Warns Investors: We’re Not Out Of The Inflation Woods
Two benign US CPI reports in a row might make a streak, but they don’t
‘Soft Landing’ Dominates In Macro Narrative Tug Of War
The “soft landing” narrative spent the last two or three months gathering adherents in the
Fed Cuts May End With Rates Still Technically ‘Restrictive’
Early Monday, while documenting Goldman’s call for the commencement of Fed cuts from Q2 2024,
A Word On Goldman’s 2024 Fed Cut Call
Let’s be clear: All forecasts for the trajectory of Fed funds are guesses. Anything can
China’s Zhongzhi Crisis Underscores Risk Of Economic Collapse
An opaque Chinese conglomerate with a trillion yuan in assets spread across everything from real
Between CPI And Jackson Hole
Retail sales and the July FOMC minutes headline in the US this week. Notwithstanding ongoing
‘Bad Folks’ With Problems
China will release key monthly activity figures this week. The news won’t be good, and
America’s ‘Profit Reckoning’ Never Showed Up
This quarter (Q3) marks a year since investors were told to be on watch for
You must be logged in to post a comment.