Is It Still A Ceasefire If Everyone’s Shooting?

Is it still a ceasefire if everybody’s shooting again?

That seems like a fair question amid conflicting reports out of the Persian Gulf, where the US military said it destroyed half a dozen IRGC gunboats and the UAE activated its air defenses to engage what Emirati officials described as an Iranian missile and drone volley.

The fireworks came as Donald Trump tested the waters, figuratively and literally, on a slapdash scheme to restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s idea, in a nutshell, is to just sail through the waterway and see what happens. Damn the torpedoes. It’s simple, I’ll give him that. But this is a case where simplicity doesn’t equal elegance, I’m afraid.

According to CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper, the Guards fired cruise missiles at commercial vessels in the Strait on Monday. They also launched swarms of drones and dispatched their notorious fleet of speedboats.

US warships shot down the missiles and drones. As for the speedboats… well, they apparently got into it with a couple of Apaches. (Guess who won?)

Iranian state media denied that US gunships destroyed any IRGC military vessels. And Tehran was loath to admit American destroyers transited the Strait. But that’s either something that happened or didn’t. It seems unlikely that Cooper would make a false claim about the verifiable position of US warships.

Bottom line: Trump’s out of patience, he’s testing the Guards and although their will to respond isn’t in question, their logistical capacity to hold the line surely is.

No one knows the extent to which they’ve mined that waterway. But if they’re bluffing in that regard, or even just mostly bluffing, it’s a problem. Because they lack the requisite assets to impede a US Navy commanded by an American president who woke up on the heedless side of the bed this week.

That’s not lost on Iran, so they’re apparently falling back on their other option: Punishing Gulf states for Trump’s bad behavior.

Fujairah — the Emirati hub which, by virtue of being on the sea-side of the chokepoint in the Gulf of Oman, doesn’t depend on the Strait — was on fire Monday after the location’s biggest port and storage facility was hit by a Shahed.

As a reminder, Fujairah’s fed directly by a pipeline running from fields in Abu Dhabi. The site’s a kind of failsafe for the UAE. Even if the Strait’s closed, the Emirates can still get a fraction of their oil to market. New Delhi said three Indian nationals were injured in the attacks on Fujairah.

The Guards also targeted Bukha, in Oman, where a residential building for coastal workers was attacked causing what local media called “moderate injuries to two expatriates.” The impact also damaged vehicles and blew out windows in adjacent structures.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for any of the attacks from the Guards, but it’s not as if anyone else would be firing missiles and drones at the UAE. Oman, which hosted Abbas Araghchi just last week, didn’t assign blame.

Meanwhile, Scott Bessent again beseeched Xi Jinping to intervene. “Let’s see [China] step up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the Strait,” he told Fox News. “China has been buying 90% of [Iran’s] energy, so they are funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism,” he added.

That oughta go over great in Beijing ahead of Trump’s trip later this month.


 

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