Reluctant.
That’s me when it comes to commenting on the current state of the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the only thing more pervasive than anxiety is confusion.
The situation’s too fluid to pronounce upon, but I suppose I’m editorially obligated to mention “Project Freedom,” Donald Trump’s name for a new escort service — wait, that sounds bad, naval initiative, aimed at helping ships trapped in the Gulf exit through the Strait.
The idea, Trump said, is “to free up” blameless vessels — “victims of circumstance,” as he called them — by guiding them “safely out of restricted waterways.”
The plan, if you can call it that (you can’t), was even shorter on specifics than most Trump plans. There was no initial indication, for example, as to whose escort needs would be prioritized, nor whether the US Navy’s confident the waters in a so-called “enhanced security area” are free of mines.
Trump said only that agents of the US government (“my representatives”) have “inform[ed]” shipowners that the Pentagon’s prepared to make its “best effort to get ships and crews safely out of the Strait.”
Amusingly, he characterized the initiative as a “humanitarian” effort undertaken not just on behalf of the US, but in fact on behalf of Iran.
After insisting that negotiations with Tehran are proceeding in a “very positive” manner (a claim for which there’s little evidence), Trump said Iran should consider that stranded vessels “are running low on food, and everything else necessary for crews to stay… healthy.”
The idea, apparently, is to shame Iran into allowing ships out of the Gulf. Only Trump would try this. He’s effectively declaring safe passage for “neutral” vessels and forcing Iran to choose between participating in a “goodwill” gesture or being the asshole who fires on “innocent bystanders.”
This is, of course, tantamount to gambling with the lives of the very same shipmen and women Trump claims he’s helping. He can’t guarantee their safety. Not completely.
The Guards weren’t amused. Ali Abdollahi, who runs the umbrella agency responsible for making sure Iran’s “regular” army is on the same page as the IRGC, said Iran won’t be participating in Trump’s “project.”
“All commercial ships and oil tankers should refrain from any attempt to transit without coordination with the IRGC,” Abdollahi said, adding that “any foreign armed force — especially the US military — will be attacked if they approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz.”
It doesn’t get much clearer than that. On the heels of Abdollahi’s threat, Fars reported that the Guards struck a US naval ship. The Pentagon quickly denied the reporting and CENTCOM said a pair of US-flagged merchant vessels sailed out of the Gulf through the Strait, unescorted, via the above-mentioned security area.
Later, the Guards conceded they didn’t actually strike any US naval assets. Instead, a spokesman said, the IRGC navy fired “warning shots in the direction” of an American warship.
Desperate move. Good way to turn a cold war hot again too. Republican Congress is less than useless.
Well, it’s at least worth asking, “What happens if we just sail through there anyway?” I think “reckless” is probably a better word than “desperate.” I mean, no you obviously don’t want to hit a mine, but at this point, for the purposes of the Strait, the IRGC’s really just the Houthis with more firepower and (a lot) more speed boats. If you were the cavalier type, and you didn’t care about losing a ship, let alone someone else’s ship, you might just say something like, “You know what? We’re coming through there. Do your worst, because we’re going to if you shoot at us.”
I am skeptical many vessels will make the exit run, since they are not being escorted and the protection available from a Navy destroyer outside the SoH is limited. The US is rushing to install drone defense systems on its ships, but a Coyote or Hellfire or laser mounted on a destroyer can protect that destroyer and nearby ships, not a tanker fifty miles away. Of course the destroyer can use its SM missiles to shoot down a drone far away, but the cost . . .
Getting trapped ships out of the Gulf will free up the oil and LNG sitting on those ships, but unless ships are willing to enter the Gulf to load, the benefit to energy supply seems temporary.
Good opportunity for Iran to trade $25K drones for $4MM SM missiles. Confirms Iran has indeed mined the S0H, for any doubters. A step toward resumption of hostilities.
Interesting that oil is up on the news.
“Confirms Iran has indeed mined the S0H, for any doubters.”
I don’t think it confirms that. The only way to confirm that without sweepers is for somebody to run across a mine and get blown up.
“ Trump said Iran should consider that stranded vessels “are running low on food, and everything else necessary for crews to stay… healthy.”
C’mon, guys. It’s his biggest healthcare initiative so far.
Iran : “Go to hell you schemer”!
Trump : ” We have an ongoing dialog “.