Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
What Of The Axis Now?
The world's burning. Figuratively. Literally. Both.
It looks as though history will remember Israel's decision to decimate Hezbollah as a stroke of strategic genius to the extent it played a very large role in the rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, a development which not only embarrassed Moscow and Tehran, but crippled them strategically. Russia may lose its only Mediterranean naval base and Iran did lose its closest state ally and only regional state ally.
All of that sounds good f
This was a good read. Thanks H
And Sunspot and solar activity is up and headed higher. Many reasonably reject sunspot analysis out of hand, however low sunspot activity is statistically associated with wars. We might be in a period of peace a coming. I can hope the good of humanity overwhelms ambition the next few years. Ted Cruz just came out and declared that the CEO killing in NYC is evidence that leftism is a mental disease, specifically highlighting climate change and resistance to corporate greed. Might I remind him that both Confucius and Jesus Christ would beg to differ.
I’ve been thinking (hoping?) that Putin’s threats of using a nuke would be lessened by Trump in office. As long as Putin still finds Trump useful, Putin wouldn’t want to risk something that could dampen Trump’s support at home. A big ‘if’ in that sentence, I realize.
I am guilty of wishful thinking so I feel your angst. However big if, I think Vladimir has very little thought about managing good consequences at this point for Donnie. It is all about Vladimir, his margin of safety just went down with the Russian people over his loss in Syria. Loss it is and a loss in a foreign endeavor has taken out more than a few dictators over the years.
Thanks for the thoughtful, analytical overview of significant geopolitical risks on the horizon. I am certain given the inclination and time, you could assess each at or above the level of Foreign Affairs. Or American Political Science Review.
On my radar: Trump’s vindictive reaction to Iran’s attempt to kill him. Trump likes to kick those who are down. He also acts as if he’s above everyone else (“Only I can fix it”). Netanyahu is a willing partner to attempt to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability, placating trump’s obsession w/ revenge under the cover of a national security strategy.
Also agree that Putin is several (or many) steps ahead of Trump always and may use a tactical nuke to test Trump’s lapdog tendency toward “strong” males, especially Putin.
“Regime Stability is a funny thing. One day it’s there; the next day, poof- it’s gone.” Am I the only one that immediately thought of our coming instability, just weeks away, when reading this?
The remaining risk is that Syria becomes another Iraq = a failed state. That would be a better outcome than it following in the steps of Afghanistan.
China may also view Trump, and his isolationist policies, as the opportunity it needs to invade Taiwan. Trump would likely not understand the gravity of that move nor care about it because of his racist perspective on anyone not white. Just like with the taking over of Hong Kong, this would immediately provide a boost to the Chinese economy and enable them to become more competitive in the AI space.
I know most would consider it crazy, but I still think the only way to eliminate the nuclear threat from Putin is to provide Ukraine with nuclear weapons. The reason he won’t use them on a NATO country is because he knows they can return fire. Without the threat of mutually assured destruction the threat of nukes will always be on the table for Putin.
Waiting with bated breath for the next monthly, Walt.
I think everyone should just pause, catch their breath and wait until about March of next year. Trump will have been in place for a couple of months by then and though there may be some mayhem things will for the large part not change. He’s appointed billionaires [the deep state] to his cabinet who are loathe to any great change. At the current time they consider him a useful idiot and will try to get some things thru that benefit their interests. But Trump is a loose cannon. Never was too bright and now getting more susceptible to senior moments. JD Vance is in the wings which might be by design. At any rate, interesting times ahead
With Hamas, Hezbollah and now Assad squashed, it seems like the fall of Khamenei/IRCG is just a matter of time.
Syrian activist Mazen al-Hamada, tortured by Assad regime, told the world about his brutal torture in Syria.
Then, mysteriously, he went back – Washington Post
March 4, 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/arab-spring-anniversary-syria-assad-mazen-hamada/
Yesterday, Hamada was found in Syria’s ‘human slaughterhouse’.
Social media users mourn Syrian activist Mazen al-Hamada
December 10, 2024
https://www.middleeasteye.net/trending/social-media-users-mourn-syrian-activist-mazen-hamada-tortured-sednaya