The world’s burning. Figuratively. Literally. Both.
It looks as though history will remember Israel’s decision to decimate Hezbollah as a stroke of strategic genius to the extent it played a very large role in the rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, a development which not only embarrassed Moscow and Tehran, but crippled them strategically. Russia may lose its only Mediterranean naval base and Iran did lose its closest state ally and only regional state ally.
All of that sounds good for the West, and it is in many respects. But it also puts Khamenei’s back against the wall (“Khamenei Loses Everything,” read the title of a piece in The Atlantic), and it makes Vladimir Putin look feckless, which he hates. If you think the optics were bad for America in leaving Kabul to the Taliban 20 years after 9/11, I’d argue the optics were worse for Russia of losing Damascus to a successor outfit of al-Qaeda less than a decade after Moscow intervened in the conflict to help Iran and Hezbollah restore Bashar al-Assad to power.
Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s in a tough spot too. The Chinese economy’s still struggling, as evidenced not just by the data, but by the wording of the most recent Politburo readout which, for the first time in nearly a decade and a half, pledged “loose” monetary policy going forward. That’s meaningful, and it wasn’t the only conciliatory turn of phrase. The same readout found the stock market mentioned in the same sentence as the housing market, underscoring “high-level recognition of the importance of the wealth effect,” as SocGen’s Wei Yao and Michelle Lam wrote, and the Party also promised to “greatly boost consumption,” an emphatic nod to still-moribund domestic demand.
What happens if none of that works? As one noted Chinese economist put it last week, China’s youth are “lifeless” and the middle-aged are “depressed.” Are they likely to rediscover their joie de vivre overnight in 2025? Remember: The CCP rules unchallenged by way of an unwritten social contract with the Chinese people. As long as the Party provides for and facilitates steady quality-of-life gains for the populace, the Chinese will submit. You could argue that Xi — whose economy has been dubbed “garbage time” by some disaffected locals — is in violation of that contract currently. That he isn’t making good on his end.
Right now, the situation in China’s generally stable. But Donald Trump intends to turn up the heat on Beijing, and he’s going to turn the screws on Khamenei from day one. Xi can play to Trump’s vanity and transactional approach to politics, and he knows Trump likes to fancy himself a friend of strongmen. Khamenei can’t do any of that. He’s a strongman Trump neither understands nor admires, and it’s not a stretch to suggest Trump will try to topple Khamenei’s regime, just without sending in any troops or bombing anybody.
Putin can probably depend on getting a pass from Trump, and maybe even a generous land grant in Ukraine, but that’s only going to make things more volatile given that the Kremlin will see it as a green light to annex any region, province, city, town or hamlet claiming Russian identity. If Trump thinks he can pacify Putin, he’s wrong.
At the same time, the fact that Putin’s nearly three years into Ukraine (10 and counting, actually) with less than a fifth of the country’s territory to show for it, and the fact that he just lost Assad to the remnants of al-Qaeda in Syria, argues strongly against the notion that Moscow’s capable of projecting behind NATO lines. That, in turn, makes one wonder if Putin might, in some fit of delirium, lash out with a tactical nuclear weapon (not on NATO territory, but perhaps in Ukraine) to send a political message, knowing Trump wouldn’t have the slightest idea how to respond.
For all the media attention paid to the demise of the West and the decline of democracy (or at least of democrat norms) across the developed world, the alternative — which is to say the “vaunted” Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis — looks even shakier now than it always looked by virtue of the fact there’s only one country in that group with any sort of claim on any kind of political or economic legitimacy.
I don’t think the end of the world’s close, nor necessarily any “World War III,” but at the same time, something’s gotta give in Tehran, something will probably give eventually in Moscow, North Korea’s a terrorist state with nukes and China’s a superpower experimenting with a kind of austere dictatorship which I’d argue will one day prove inconsistent with the will of 1.4 billion people living in the 21st century.
I’ve used the following line, from Keith Gessen, before: “Regime stability is a funny thing. One day it’s there; the next day, poof — it’s gone.” Desperate people do desperate things. Desperate despots even more so.
This was a good read. Thanks H
And Sunspot and solar activity is up and headed higher. Many reasonably reject sunspot analysis out of hand, however low sunspot activity is statistically associated with wars. We might be in a period of peace a coming. I can hope the good of humanity overwhelms ambition the next few years. Ted Cruz just came out and declared that the CEO killing in NYC is evidence that leftism is a mental disease, specifically highlighting climate change and resistance to corporate greed. Might I remind him that both Confucius and Jesus Christ would beg to differ.
I’ve been thinking (hoping?) that Putin’s threats of using a nuke would be lessened by Trump in office. As long as Putin still finds Trump useful, Putin wouldn’t want to risk something that could dampen Trump’s support at home. A big ‘if’ in that sentence, I realize.
I am guilty of wishful thinking so I feel your angst. However big if, I think Vladimir has very little thought about managing good consequences at this point for Donnie. It is all about Vladimir, his margin of safety just went down with the Russian people over his loss in Syria. Loss it is and a loss in a foreign endeavor has taken out more than a few dictators over the years.
Thanks for the thoughtful, analytical overview of significant geopolitical risks on the horizon. I am certain given the inclination and time, you could assess each at or above the level of Foreign Affairs. Or American Political Science Review.
On my radar: Trump’s vindictive reaction to Iran’s attempt to kill him. Trump likes to kick those who are down. He also acts as if he’s above everyone else (“Only I can fix it”). Netanyahu is a willing partner to attempt to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability, placating trump’s obsession w/ revenge under the cover of a national security strategy.
Also agree that Putin is several (or many) steps ahead of Trump always and may use a tactical nuke to test Trump’s lapdog tendency toward “strong” males, especially Putin.
“Regime Stability is a funny thing. One day it’s there; the next day, poof- it’s gone.” Am I the only one that immediately thought of our coming instability, just weeks away, when reading this?
The remaining risk is that Syria becomes another Iraq = a failed state. That would be a better outcome than it following in the steps of Afghanistan.
China may also view Trump, and his isolationist policies, as the opportunity it needs to invade Taiwan. Trump would likely not understand the gravity of that move nor care about it because of his racist perspective on anyone not white. Just like with the taking over of Hong Kong, this would immediately provide a boost to the Chinese economy and enable them to become more competitive in the AI space.
I know most would consider it crazy, but I still think the only way to eliminate the nuclear threat from Putin is to provide Ukraine with nuclear weapons. The reason he won’t use them on a NATO country is because he knows they can return fire. Without the threat of mutually assured destruction the threat of nukes will always be on the table for Putin.
Waiting with bated breath for the next monthly, Walt.
I think everyone should just pause, catch their breath and wait until about March of next year. Trump will have been in place for a couple of months by then and though there may be some mayhem things will for the large part not change. He’s appointed billionaires [the deep state] to his cabinet who are loathe to any great change. At the current time they consider him a useful idiot and will try to get some things thru that benefit their interests. But Trump is a loose cannon. Never was too bright and now getting more susceptible to senior moments. JD Vance is in the wings which might be by design. At any rate, interesting times ahead
With Hamas, Hezbollah and now Assad squashed, it seems like the fall of Khamenei/IRCG is just a matter of time.
Syrian activist Mazen al-Hamada, tortured by Assad regime, told the world about his brutal torture in Syria.
Then, mysteriously, he went back – Washington Post
March 4, 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/arab-spring-anniversary-syria-assad-mazen-hamada/
Yesterday, Hamada was found in Syria’s ‘human slaughterhouse’.
Social media users mourn Syrian activist Mazen al-Hamada
December 10, 2024
https://www.middleeasteye.net/trending/social-media-users-mourn-syrian-activist-mazen-hamada-tortured-sednaya