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Turning Point
[Editor's note: In light of the historic significance of the events which unfolded in Beirut on September 27, 2024, I've published an ad hoc Monthly Letter, which I'm making available temporarily to all subscribers, regardless of subscription tier. September's previously-planned Monthly, entitled "Survival Of The Richest," will be published in October.]
Hassan Nasrallah's dead.
Hezbollah dug his lifeless body from the rubble in Dahiya on Saturday. The group's announcement came around 18 hours
Would Israel kill Khamenei?
Seems that would commit it to then going on to kill a couple levels of Iranian commanders and clerics who could succeed Khamenei, and to destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities to include its reactors and enrichment hardware. IDF aircraft would have to overfly a hostile country or two and a lot of air defense radars, harder than a quick sortie over the Lebanese border, and while IDF can certainly defeat Iran’s air defenses and destroy any target in Iran, alerted people can move and hide even if nuclear reactors cannot. Has Mossad penetrated Iran’s security apparatus as it has Hezbollah’s? I suppose more up close methods are possible, but how many times.
My guess is that Khamenei is right to be in hiding now but will probably not go from there directly to Heaven; he likely has a fork in the road, as in he and Iran can do some things and not do others that will stay Israel’s hand. Or he can choose Heaven, I guess.
But really, are these not all piffles next to the real question of the day? Oil and oil stocks – is there anything to which they will respond, fer chrissakes?