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Turning Point
[Editor's note: In light of the historic significance of the events which unfolded in Beirut on September 27, 2024, I've published an ad hoc Letter in lieu of September's previously-planned Monthly]
Hassan Nasrallah's dead.
Hezbollah dug his lifeless body from the rubble in Dahiya on Saturday. The group's announcement came around 18 hours after the IDF dropped six-dozen bombs on a neighborhood in the Beirut suburb, where Nasrallah was gathered with the group's senior officials in an undergroun
Would Israel kill Khamenei?
Seems that would commit it to then going on to kill a couple levels of Iranian commanders and clerics who could succeed Khamenei, and to destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities to include its reactors and enrichment hardware. IDF aircraft would have to overfly a hostile country or two and a lot of air defense radars, harder than a quick sortie over the Lebanese border, and while IDF can certainly defeat Iran’s air defenses and destroy any target in Iran, alerted people can move and hide even if nuclear reactors cannot. Has Mossad penetrated Iran’s security apparatus as it has Hezbollah’s? I suppose more up close methods are possible, but how many times.
My guess is that Khamenei is right to be in hiding now but will probably not go from there directly to Heaven; he likely has a fork in the road, as in he and Iran can do some things and not do others that will stay Israel’s hand. Or he can choose Heaven, I guess.
But really, are these not all piffles next to the real question of the day? Oil and oil stocks – is there anything to which they will respond, fer chrissakes?
FWIW (and, apparently, my knowledge of the region is limited), if I was Israel, I would NOT go after Khamenei. Apart from the practical difficulties, countries really lose their shit when you go after heads of state. Not fair but these are the rules.
If not for, Donnie, the other wars and repeated nuclear retaliation threats coming from Russia, the Isreali actions would likely propel the conflict to front page news propelling fear trades. Now all we see is a relatively muted move in gold. I think people are numb from the horror shows. However I am not a sufficient student of history to see a parallel. I would read eagerly if someone were to pen a rhyming comparison.
Personally I have engaged in selling hope in these dark times. The primary narrative is about how both our regulatory structures are creating wealth and the coming boom in chemicals we will see over the decades due to our advances in electro chemistry. I also tell people about my 3 cents per mile operating costs in town with an EV and the 420 mile range it shows after charging.
There is much to be optimistic for. I attend classes at college and therefore am part of several first and second year student’s lives. I see the crop as eager to learn and excel at a level higher than we ever achieved. Yes they will make us proud. Even if some have traded cowboy boots (high heels for men) for hormone therapy.
Hats off to you, sir.
H, do you care to comment on the possible future direction of Lebanon as a state? What does the weakening of Hezbollah mean for the people of Lebanon, and the future of the country?
Nice to be reminded of how little I know, humbling as usual. In British media you don’t get a tiny fraction of this article so thank you very much for this.
Ali Khamenei’s days as Supreme Leader of Iran are numbered regardless of whether Israel decides to attempt to take him out or not- because even if the Israeli’s don’t get him, he won’t live forever (and be cognitively capable).
He is 85 years old and has been Supreme Leader for over 35 years. Transition of leadership in authoritarian, oppressive countries never seems to go smoothly.
The Shah’s son (Reza Pahlavi) is still alive and living in Virginia. Maybe he is available! I am guessing that all the descendants of those women who protested against The Shah are rethinking their support of The Supreme Leader- not that their voice counts.
This is a terrific article
Thank you for sharing this with the rabble!
It’s amazing to me that so many American right-wingers appear to support Putin and MBS. Both of whom are supporters of state terrorism. Just the other day I saw in passing Tucker Carlson praising MBS as the greatest of world leaders. It’s astonishing to me. Then again a lot Trump’s fans also praise Pinochet.
It’s a miracle of modern propaganda that the likes of Putin, Orban, Assad and ISIS have captured the hearts of the far-right all the while ignoring the conflict of interests with ‘freedom.’
Freedom from a liberal order these people all despise, for various reasons.
I think a fair few MAGA fans would be okay with a fascistic government if it allowed them to resuscitate a Jim Crow like environment targeting Blacks, Hispanics and LGBTQ+ people… What’s freedom worth when you’re given the right to beat the living crap out of minorities? And, for the better socialised, delicate MAGAs, legally discriminate and oppress them. Lynching are a bit like NASCAR, low class coded.
I do not think the rank and file MAGAT’s despise liberal ideas. I think they have been encultured to resist change and to romanticize about a mind’s eye past that never was. Also there is a bit of the bad boy mystique (maybe caused by lead poisoning) that propels the emotional roller coaster.
The leaded gasoline poisoned brains are aging out and dying off. I see a near universal rejection of MAGAT norms in younger college going types. Steve Bannon is not reaching the demographics he needs for sustaining the revolution he pines for. No I think the overweight 70 year old loudmouths are losing the battle before it even starts. A revolution cannot be made with has beens pining for a past that never was.
In the last 4 years we have done a lot of good by following our values. Much as been made of the war weapons sent to Ukraine, however much more money has been spent supporting these people with the necessities of life. We have given to the oppressed and in a very small way contributed to a redeeming of America in the eyes of our allies and enemies. A case can be made is that redeeming America is the one outcome of the Ukraine war that most threatens Valady and his cohorts. Netenyahu and Taiwan have played a masterful game of involving us in their conflicts. We need to be continuously aware that not all of our allies are our friends.
They killed Nabil Qaouk this morning. Right now, they’re bombing Hodeidah. If Abdul Malik al-Houthi’s not in a bunker, he should get to one.
Some day someone will write a book about Israeli infilitration of Hezbollah and Iran’s leadership ranks. It will be a best-seller.
Has Israel struck the Houthis before?
Never mind – I see. So many strikes, hard to remember who fired what.
Yeah, this is the second bombing run. I don’t think the Houthis understand what they’re dealing with here. They’re used to i) that Saudi-led coalition which, while brutal and certainly not opposed to causing civilian casualties, just wasn’t all that effective strategically in six years of trying, and ii) US / UK strikes designed to avoid killing people. This is real simple: If they keep lobbing missiles and drones towards Tel Aviv, Israel’s going to fly down there and kill everybody in Sanaa. I’m exaggerating, obviously, but you get the idea. They’re going to discover that the IDF’s a different animal altogether.
Did you see what the IDF said today? They said, to the Houthis: “This isn’t a message. This is action that sends a message.” These proxies need to wave the white flag, because it ain’t gonna workin’ out. That’s just the reality of it at this point. I didn’t think the IDF was going to go all-in, but they plainly have and the simple fact is that now, all of these glorified militia are facing a full-on war with an extremely aggravated, technologically-advanced modern military that by appearances has a green light from its government to kill anybody who even breathes wrong or frowns in Israel’s general direction.
I don’t want to get into too much of an argument with you being the host but, last week, you were saying I was dumb for suggesting such things as Iran ‘abandoning its proxies’ etc.
I mean, you write 100x better than I can but, one week later, aren’t we saying the same thing?
“I don’t want to get into too much of an argument with you being the host.”
Good idea.
Hahahaha.
Well, your house, your rules.
You’re a smart guy Fred, the issue (and you’re not alone in this, there are several other folks who fall into the same category) is that when there’s a debate worth having at length, the readership’s better served if I just write another whole article (like this one) than if I get into a lengthy exchange in the comment section. I don’t agree with your takeaway from this article vis-a-vis your comment from last week, but I see where your reasoning comes from. The issue, in my view, is that you’re not fully apprised of the extent to which Hezbollah’s an extension of the Iranian state. “Proxy” is a misnomer. Iran can’t defend Hezbollah here (how would that work?) but they can’t disavow it anymore than you can disavow your own knee or your own ear. They’re synonymous. The pickle is that historically, Hezbollah fights a low-level “war” with Israel on behalf of Iran, whereas now, Iran’s effectively in a position where if they want to preserve Hezbollah in anything like its current form, they’d have to fight an actual, state-on-state war with Israel, which they probably wouldn’t do even if they had the wherewithal, and they clearly don’t. In short: This wasn’t supposed to happen. Like Soleimani’s assassination, this wasn’t in the set of eventualities that the regime had planned for or even pondered. Sure, these people (Nasrallah, Soleimani and so on) were all going to be assassinated eventually, but the idea that the US and Israel would simply blow them up in full view of the international community and say, “Look. We did that.” wasn’t on the cards. Or at least Iran didn’t think it was. And that’s to say nothing of this full-on blitz in Lebanon which is different in character even than 2006. If the question is “Ok, well wtf are they going to do now?” The answer is “I have no idea.” And they don’t either. [Insert Bill Paxton “game over” rant from Aliens]
Thanks. Maybe it’s selfish but I really appreciate that answer as it clarifies where our differences of opinion might be. I understand I am but one commentator/subscriber but, if you have the time to comment at all, it’s really worthwhile to me.
And, FWIW, like many other readers have expressed, I really do appreciate these more in-depth articles. They add a lot.
It appears obvious that Israel had pre-planned all of these attacks – so that in the event that Israel determined that they wanted to execute the attacks, they would be ready to actually execute the mission.
It makes me wonder what other missions/attacks that they have pre-planned, but have not yet executed.
“No half-measures.” -Mike E.
Thanks for this excellent commentary.