“Here’s the truth,” Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday, addressing the UN General Assembly. “Israel yearns for peace.”
Minutes later, the IDF took a shot at Hassan Nasrallah, leveling four residential buildings in the process. Borj al-Brajneh, a neighborhood in Dahiya, Hezbollah’s suburban stronghold in southern Beirut, was engulfed in acrid black-orange smoke.
Locals described the strike in apocalyptic terms. An entire city block was reduced to rubble. If there were any questions — any questions at all — as to Israel’s intentions regarding Hezbollah, they were answered on Friday. Netanyahu targeted the senior-most leadership at what the IDF described as the group’s “command center,” located beneath two apartment buildings.
By “senior leadership,” I mean the Shura Council. The commanders killed in recent weeks presided over the Jihad Council, a subordinate branch. The Shura Council is the chief decision-making body. Friday’s strike was, by every account, an attempt to eliminate the panel, Nasrallah included. There was no immediate word on his status or whereabouts.
Daniel Hagari described a precision strike on the “central headquarters” of Hezbollah, “which was intentionally built under residential buildings… in order to use them as human shields.” Those humans — the civilians — are probably dead. Entombed. As Lebanon’s health minister put it, “Whoever [was] in those buildings is now under the rubble.”
In a testament to the potential gravity of what took place in Beirut Friday, Netanyahu walked out of a UN press conference at the urging of a military advisor. He was set to fly back to Israel immediately. As The New York Times noted, it’s “highly unusual for Netanyahu to conduct state flights on the Jewish Sabbath.”
The Pentagon had no prior knowledge of the strike, other than a courtesy heads up at the very last minute. According to a spokeswoman for the US military, Yoav Gallant was actually on the phone with Lloyd Austin just prior to the attack.
Regardless of whether Nasrallah survived Friday’s strike, he’s a dead man. They’re all dead men. Regular readers will attest that I’ve wondered aloud in recent weeks — including on Wednesday, in “Endgame” — if the IDF would target senior Hezbollah officials outside the Jihad Council. The answer, as it turns out, is “absolutely.” Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine and all the rest are marked men on borrowed time.
Last week, at Ibrahim Aqil‘s funeral, Naim Qassem (Nasrallah’s deputy) said Hezbollah’s “ready to face all military possibilities.” Well, Qassem, bear witness:
That’s verified footage of Friday’s strike on the leadership. Note the screams of civilians beginning at the 0:15 mark.
On Thursday evening, I described Hezbollah as “defenseless.” I wasn’t expressing sympathy. Not for Hezbollah, anyway. Rather, I was conveying the reality of the group’s predicament. For all the bombast and the post-2006 build up — for all the missiles and the training — they’re still “just” a militia. The most capable militia on Earth? Sure. Maybe. But a militia all the same. They’re woefully outgunned here, and their counterintelligence capabilities aren’t just insufficient for the task at hand, they’re comparatively piddling such as to be of no consequence whatever.
Over and over again this year I emphasized — specifically and unequivocally — that Israel almost surely knew the locations of every ranking Hezbollah commander and official. Now you see what I meant. Hezbollah’s leadership are fish in a barrel. And it’s important — crucial, in my view — to understand that they always were.
Yes, Hezbollah’s capable of fighting Israel to a standstill in a variety of limited-war contexts, particularly those that involve the IDF fighting the foot soldiers in close-quarters in Lebanon. But no, Hezbollah has no hope (none) in the event Israel brings to bear, unrestrained, the full force of its air power and on-the-ground targeting capabilities against the group’s leaders and commanders, with no regard for civilians. That’s what Netanyahu’s doing right now, and you’re seeing the results: Fire and brimstone, folks. Fire and f–king brimstone.
There’s nothing Hezbollah can do now. Notwithstanding some loud shouting from Iran’s embassy in Lebanon on Friday, the IRGC’s not coming to help. And guess what? If they do, they’ll be incinerated too.
I wish there were a more sophisticated way to put this, but I’m afraid there isn’t, or at least not if I want to make the point as forcefully as it needs to be made: All the talk — all the years of Nasrallah’s finger-wagging bluster and Khamenei’s trademark balderdash — was, in the final analysis, just one big bluff from two of the world’s biggest bullsh-ters. Israel’s in the process of calling that bluff.
So, it’s put up or shut up time for Nasrallah, assuming he’s still alive. If he’s not.. honestly, I don’t know what then. I have no idea what they do in the event he’s killed. Apparently, Safieddine was unharmed Friday, according to initial indications. I assume he’d step in to lead (probably over Naim Qassem if my guess counts) if or when the IDF reunites Nasrallah with the big guy. But again: Safieddine’s a dead man too. There’s no future for Hezbollah’s leadership.
All I know for sure is that this bloody melee, carried out in the name of religion and holy land, is manifesting as hell on earth for the millions of people caught in the “righteous” crossfire. “It was like Judgment Day,” a 54-year-old Borj al-Brajneh resident told the Times, of Friday’s strike in Beirut. “I can’t describe it.”
“Then said Jesus unto him, Put up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.”
— Matthew 26:52
Hezbollah should have considered, and Iran probably is considering, Netanyahu’s position. He is backed into a corner, trapped by public opinion and his own legal risks, where his logical action will almost always be to escalate.
Two minutes ago, from the NY Times:
“The initial assessment of Israeli intelligence agencies, based on the number and the size of the bombs used and information gathered from inside the militant group, is that Mr. Nasrallah has been killed, the officials said. But they cautioned that conclusion may yet change.”
I guess NYT should change its story title “Who is Hassan Nasrallah” to “Who was Hassan Nasrallah”.
Now question is, will Israel ground forces go into Lebanon? What will Iran do?
Guessing “yes” and “nothing much”. Netanyahu has between a month and three months while the US is firmly navel-gazing, he wants Hezbollah’s missile caches, and Israelis are less likely to oust him while IDF is fighting in Lebanon. What can Iran do when, as Dr H says, their choice is between humiliation and destruction. Send more drones to the Houthis?
And of course the most salient question, for investors if not for human beings: will anything send oil prices up? C’mon already.
What could go wrong for Israel and the US now? How about a real hothead decides to boost his chances of assuming Nasrallah’s role by doing something wild & outrageous? Which, of course, would provoke a similar response from Jerusalem?
A not insignificant swath of Hezbollah’s leadership has been killed by Israel over the last week, and it’s now apparent the group has been thoroughly infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. Reading reports out of Beirut this morning, it seems like the biggest short-term danger is the outbreak of conflict between Hezbollah and anti-Hezbollah elements within Lebanon itself.
If Lebanon is freed from Hezbollah- what a great outcome for the Lebanese.
I got two Lebanese friends saying this is the best thing to happen to Lebanon in a while…
Do those Lebanese friends actually live in Lebanon?
Not anymore, though they visit regularly and have remaining family there.
And, sure, the fact the Hezbollah was instrumental in a civil war that destroyed their country might color their views…
And ended decades of rule by the Maronite Christian minority.
In order to continue to keep downward pressure on the price of oil and to therefore reduce oil revenues to Iran and Russia from the sale of oil, the US can continue ramping up oil production (currently at a record high 13.2M BPD- which is about 6.5% over 2023 production rate) and continue to reopen/build new nuclear power plants to meet growing electricity demand.
Not a bad outcome for the US economy/people, as well.
Anyone else thinking Heisenberg has lost Internet/electricity on account of a certain weather event?
What are you talking about? I published a 3,000-word ad hoc Monthly Letter this morning (it’s right there on the home page) and I just sent a 1,500-word Weekly to the inboxes of every Plus subscriber 30 seconds ago. I’m not anywhere near those “weather events.”
Bad guess, shrug emoji.
Just finished reading the monthly, didn’t have anything in my inbox when I started reading it.
This is H during the last 24 hours:
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