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After The Cut
There's plenty of data on offer this week across the world's largest economy. And even more Fed speak.
I'm not sure how tradable the macro updates will ultimately prove. The BEA's personal income and spending release is the headliner, given that it affords market participants and policymakers a chance to retroactively justify last week's upsized rate cut by way of PCE price figures which are assumed benign.
When the Fed's self-imposed quiet period lifted last week, Chris Waller told CNBC's Ste
As long as the recession shoe drops in 2025 not b4 the election. A softish landing that feels like a recession for a few quarters would be ok. Powell was right to go 50. Insurance is often worth buying, and that is what he did. If the economy ends up a lot stronger in early November the fomc can always wait to cut again.
Recession before election seems a remote risk indeed, as we’re tracking 3% real GDP growth in 3Q?
Often wondered about disparate cumulative data expression and agglomeration? Imagine some more weighted and determining influential? In the end Powell and cohorts “best” synopsis even with sundry PhD’s and massive data sets. HEI, are there certain stats deserving exalted determinism? Obviously, decisions made prior to actual targets reached. Is it conceivable Fed is tacitly amenable to 2%+?
Thanks
Hey! That’s what AI promises to deliver.
The discouraging thing is that the underlying real economy is not static. That makes modelling it oh so much more difficult. Almost useless in my mind, but others may differ.
I don’t know if you intended it to be funny but that picture is cracking me up…to be or not to be, little bear.
Things seem to be lining up nicely for stocks. Where does that leave the “sell the cut”? Maybe it has already happened?