Last month was pivotal.

Maybe “pivotal” isn’t the right word. Let’s call it “remarkable” instead.

Why? Why was June remarkable? Because according to one bank, last month was the first in nearly four years without a rate hike.

As the figure above, from BofA, shows, the last time no global central bank raised rates during a calendar month was October of 2020.

Suffice to say policymakers believe inflation’s beaten. Or else are concerned that the balance of risks has shifted enough that the inflation-fighting benefits of additional rate hikes are outweighed by the risks to growth and employment.

From October of 2020 to August of 2023 there were more than 500 global rate hikes versus just 65 cuts, BofA’s Michael Hartnett noted, in a kind of requiem for the most aggressive global tightening cycle in a generation. Since August, there have been 108 cuts versus just four dozen hikes, he went on.

For what it’s worth, BofA expects 56 rate cuts around the world in the back half of this year and only three hikes.