JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is… I don’t know, still bearish. Or still cautious. Not especially constructive. Circumspect.

I’m running out of creative ways to editorialize around Kolanovic’s generalized skepticism which, as ever, sounds eminently rational. The problem isn’t — and never has been — the rationale. Risks are myriad, rates are high, the curve’s inverted, canaries are belly up and so on.

The issue, rather, is that due to a variety of well-documented factors, the monetary policy transmission channel in the US isn’t working very efficiently this cycle and in the meantime (i.e., between now and whenever the economy finally succumbs), risk assets, including and especially equities, don’t see a lot of reasons to sell off.

As discussed at some length over the weekend, the US macro data has turned recently. Not for the worse necessarily (let alone the worst, with a “t”), but a run of relatively cool prints (April ISMs, NFP, AHE, retail sales, CPI) early last month suggested a slowdown. Downward revisions in the second estimate of Q1 GDP, a drop in real personal spending, uniformly lackluster housing data and, as of Monday, a weak ISM manufacturing report for May all suggest a loss of momentum.

To Kolanovic, investors’ nonchalant attitude — as exemplified by near record-high equities and very tight credit spreads — still looks perilously flippant. “While a number of macro signals are pointing to economic slowdown or a recession, market risk sentiment remains positive,” he wrote Monday, adding that stocks are back to assuming a soft landing as the base case.

While JPMorgan’s analysts concede the possibility of “additional near-term upside,” they emphasized that risk premia comparisons for equities are already unattractive relative to bonds and cash. “Another leg up will serve to stretch these further,” they wrote, warning that the market may be “overly reliant on the soft landing narrative and fragile to any disappointment.”

Ultimately, Kolanovic still doubts the prospects for a fairy tale ending. “It is possible, but historically and statistically unlikely, that this time is different,” he said, flatly.