There’s More To The Nvidia Story Than Nvidia

On the eve of Nvidia’s Q1 report, billed as another “make or break” moment for an equity rally that’d very much like an excuse to keep running, it’s worth noting that it’s actually not all about Jensen Huang anymore.

Well, it is. As CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator put it last week, the entire world’s dependent on Nvidia at this juncture.

But S&P 500 earnings growth won’t just be an Nvidia story going forward. That was one message from BofA’s equity quant team this week. “Fundamentals are broadening out and so should the market,” analysts including Ohsung Kwon wrote, referencing the visual below.

Looking backward, Nvidia accounted for nearly 40% of S&P earnings growth over the last 12 months, but the company’s seen driving less than 10% of aggregate profit growth over the next year.

As the combined share for Nvidia and the rest of the “Magnificent 7” shows, it was indeed all about the mega-caps over the last three quarters. But, again, that’s expected to change. And here’s hoping if you think a narrow market’s an unhealthy market.

In the same note, BofA tossed out some numbers. Since Nvidia’s “guide heard ’round the world” in May of 2023, the company added $1.5 trillion in market cap, logged LTM EPS growth in excess of 600% and, together with the popularity of ChatGPT, drove mentions of AI during conference calls up nearly 200%. Tech investment’s picking up, and so-called “hyperscalers” (Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta) are set to lift spending by a third in 2024, which equates to nearly $200 billion.

As BofA went on to remind investors, this isn’t all about GPUs. It’s also about power. “Expected power usage for US data centers under construction is equivalent to more than 50% of the power currently used,” the bank said, adding that “power used by AI applications is expected to grow at a 25-33% CAGR over the next few years.”

The note mentioned Vertiv, which makes equipment for data centers. It’s up nearly 700% since the beginning of last year, trouncing Nvidia.

Vertiv, BofA said, is the “real AI darling.”


 

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