There was “nasty” inflation news on Wednesday and it prompted a “huge” move in bond yields.

Those are the actual adjectives (“nasty” and “huge”) employed by one mainstream media outlet to describe a 0.2ppt overshoot on headline CPI in the UK and the market reaction in gilts.

Picture this. You’re having tea and a light breakfast in a quiet cafe. Everyone’s reading the paper or, more likely, scrolling mindlessly through their social media feeds, when ONS ruins the mood. Or your mood, anyway. Headline price growth in the UK was 2.3% in April.

That would’ve been ok, but for economists. They collectively predicted 2.1%. So, the coolest YoY inflation reading since the onset of a generational cost of living crisis instead counted as a “nasty” upside surprise. Two whole tenths worth of disgusting.

How could this be? A big decline was guaranteed thanks to the lower energy price cap, so all the Bank of England needed was a little luck for the headline to hit the magic number (the 2% target), green-lighting a rate cut. But no dice, apparently. No 2%. Instead, 2.3%. And that’s not going to cut it. Figuratively or literally.

Cafe decorum be damned, you can’t take it. “Nasty bugger!” you shriek at your phone screen, pounding the table with your off hand. Your scone jumps. So does everyone sitting around you. A child’s sippy cup falls to the floor.

Nervous eyes flit to and fro. People start to gather their belongings. It’s time to go. Something’s got this man upset. And it quickly gets worse.

Traders have trimmed bets on a June start to BoE rate cuts. In fact, they’ve priced the June MPC out altogether. Not a “fait accompli” indeed.

The UK front-end’s selling off. Hard. We’re talking 15bps hard. It’s too much. It’s all too much. You pull up the Sonia strip and hold up your phone. “Huge!”

At this point, everyone’s leaving. Hurriedly. An employee has called the police. The baristas are getting paid more now (a lot more, actually), but not enough for this. Not nearly enough for this.

You don’t care. When the bobbies and Peelers get there, you’ll tell them the really bad news: Services sector inflation barely budged. It ran 5.9% last month.

The BoE expected 5.5%. Last time you checked, 5.9% is higher than 5.5%. You thought these forecasts were fixed. They brought in Ben Bernanke, after all.

“That’s it. It’s over. This is ruined. The first cut’s a November event, and that’s if we’re lucky!” You’re ranting now, pacing around the empty tables.

The baristas are terrified. They’ve huddled together behind the counter, but you can see them through the pastry case. You crouch down, pull up the services sector CPI chart and hold your phone up to the glass. “See this?” They’re peering out and you’re peering in. “You did this.”

“What’s going on today, sir?” The police are there now. You stand up and turn around slowly. “You know goddamn well what’s going on” you sneer, sardonic. “I don’t think we do. How about you step away from the pastries and tell us about it?” One of them’s cautiously approaching, his partner’s on the radio: “We’re gonna need some backup down here, we got a situation at the Bonbon Bistro.”

You start to wonder if this is all worth it. Maybe you’ve overreacted. It’s just one month’s data, after all, and besides, annual price hikes probably played a role: April’s figures can be misleading. You know that.

You try to explain yourself. “Listen everybody, I had a bad morning. I’ve been under a lot of stress lately and I just… I don’t know, I lost my head for a second. If it’s all the same, I’d like to just pay for my tea and scone and forget this ever happened.”

The police are skeptical. “It’s a little late for that. You’ve caused quite the disturbance here.” The barista shift lead stands up from behind the counter. “We just want this chap to leave,” she says.

“What’s the damage?” you ask, reaching into the side pocket of your shoulder bag. Everyone gasps. “Relax, I’m just getting my wallet.”

She prints out the check and slides it across the counter. You examine it. It’s pretty light, considering the circumstances. “That’s not so bad,” you muse.

One of the officers shrugs: “Didn’t you see the CPI release this morning?” he asks. “Inflation’s the slowest since July of 2021.”