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Treasury Surprises With Borrowing Estimate Overshoot
Market participants expecting high drama from Treasury's financing estimate on Monday were left wanting.
Headed into this week's quarterly refunding announcement, there was some speculation that Janet Yellen might cut the government's borrowing forecast for a third consecutive quarter. On some interpretations, that's a policy "put" of sorts, although given static coupons, the mechanism for a prospective cut to spur risk sentiment further was more convoluted compared to the setup from six months
a rounding error and an insatiable +5% T-bill appetite (me 2); increasing coupons by $40b+ (especially >10yr) will create some demand noise imho – how about >5% on 10yr to grow an appetite?