Another Barnburner: US Labor Market Steams Ahead

Stop me if you’ve heard this intro before: The US economy added far more jobs than expected last month, government data released on Friday showed.

I suppose I can stop. Because I’ve definitely penned that sentence previously. And on numerous occasions. But unlike Mrs. Lancaster, I serve déjà vu, so I’ll regale you.

The US labor market’s the Energizer Bunny and it delivered again in March, when the world’s largest economy added 303,000 jobs, easily ahead of consensus which was looking for 214,000.

Revisions added 27,000 to January’s headline and took 5,000 from February’s. Those are relatively minor adjustments.

March’s headline print matched the strongest reading since January of 2023. The three-month moving average is now 276,000, the highest in a year.

Gains were paced by government and health care, followed by construction and, of course, leisure and hospitality, which has now reclaimed all of the jobs lost to the pandemic. That’s a milestone. The private payrolls print was 232,000, 62,000 higher than consensus.

Mercifully for equities, average hourly earnings were basically in line, rising 0.3% in March from February. ADP’s “pay insights” data released earlier this week suggested wage growth for so-called “job-switchers” ran double-digits last month, a disconcerting prospect for a Fed desperately hoping to avoid a reemergence of wage-price spiral concerns (you might fairly ask how “desperate” they actually are given the “median” official still wants to cut rates three times this year, but let’s leave that debate aside). The YoY AHE print, at 4.1%, was likewise consistent with expectations.

Recall that AHE came in downright hot in January, only to recede sharply the next month. February’s 0.1% gain was revised up on Friday to show a (rounded) 0.2% increase. March’s 0.3% print was on the high side when it comes to being consistent with disinflation. Unrounded, it was 0.347%. But you can make it work with your “Goldilocks” narrative if you have to. Or if you want to.

The unemployment rate slipped to 3.8%, impressive in the context of a participation rate that rose to 62.7%, just short of the post-pandemic high.

Bears looking to the household survey for help with their dour “disconnect” narratives were left wanting: It showed a 498,000 gain, the most since November and the second-most since January of last year. That snapped a three-month streak of declines.

All in all, the release was another solid read on (dare I use the exhausted cliché) a resilient US labor market. The takeaway for the Fed’s pretty favorable: Wage growth could be a little cooler, but it’s not completely incongruous with stable prices, and robust jobs growth underscores the case for patience.

“Overall, there is nothing definitive for the Fed in this release — more waiting, less seeing,” as BMO’s Ian Lyngen put it. “It comes down to next week’s CPI data.”


 

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3 thoughts on “Another Barnburner: US Labor Market Steams Ahead

  1. This seems related to the immigration-driven population surge, no? Per CBO, US population grew about 2.3% in 2022-2023. Census says lower, but many see serious undercounting there. 2023 population growth is, I’m reading, among the largest 1-year increases in recent US history. Immigrants are typically prime working age, hard working, and will take tough jobs at low pay . . . the kind of jobs many businesses have struggled to fill. So a surge in immigration can cause a surge in jobs without a surge in wages.

    The implications for housing inflation though . . .

    1. Jobs that pay in cash which do not withhold payroll/income taxes are not included in these jobs data reports, either.
      It is not hard to pick up a work crew, for cash, to help around a construction site (in some cities I have visited in the past year- they are waiting in the Home Depot parking lots) or to find someone who wants to provide in home health care/elderly assistance for cash.

  2. I would like to look at the March estimate (214k), by category, and then compare that to the March actual (303k) by category.
    It is a little concerning that the top 2 categories of employment increases are government and healthcare (quasi government).
    Where can I find that detail?

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