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US Jobs Report Offers Something For Everyone
The US economy added more jobs than expected in February, while revisions trimmed the prior two months' headlines by 167,000. The jobless rate rose and wage growth cooled sharply.
At 275,000, the headline NFP print easily counted as a beat. Consensus was 200,000. The range of estimates, from more than five-dozen economists, was 110,000 to 286,000.
By itself, the headline would've counted as more evidence to support the so-called "no landing" macro narrative that some worry could ultimately pre
Curious if any of the data wonks here know how much influence seasonal and other adjustments have on both NFP and the Household Survey. Specifically, is one less doctored up by assumptions and such?
Don’t know, here might be a good place to start – would be interested in any conclusions you draw
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm
Whenever I dig into (read: scrape lightly at) economic data methodologies, I come away impressed at how difficult it is to collect the data and reminded that month-to-month changes really should be disregarded. Even irritating adjustments (e.g. birth-death) have a rationale. All the imperfection, inconsistencies, and revisions are frustrating but, hey, we could do it like China.