US Jobs Report Offers Something For Everyone

The US economy added more jobs than expected in February, while revisions trimmed the prior two months’ headlines by 167,000. The jobless rate rose and wage growth cooled sharply.

At 275,000, the headline NFP print easily counted as a beat. Consensus was 200,000. The range of estimates, from more than five-dozen economists, was 110,000 to 286,000.

By itself, the headline would’ve counted as more evidence to support the so-called “no landing” macro narrative that some worry could ultimately prevent the Fed from moving ahead with rate cuts in 2024. Thankfully, revisions took the edge off.

January’s scorching headline was revised to show a more pedestrian, albeit still quite respectable, 229,000 gain. December’s job additions now stand at 290,000, 43,000 lower. The three-month average is now 264,000.

Private payrolls rose 223,000, far more than ADP “suggested.” Consensus there was 165,000. Factories shed 4,000 jobs. The optics of that aren’t great after Joe Biden talked up a manufacturing revival, but it’s a side note. Health care added 67,000 jobs, government 52,000, restaurants and bars 42,000, construction 23,000 and on and on. There are jobs. If you want a job, you can find work.

Traders were watching average hourly earnings, which overshot dramatically in January’s release. In what I can only describe as unequivocally welcome news for the Fed, wage growth was just 0.1% MoM in February, the slowest in years. January’s MoM reading was revised lower.

Measured on a YoY basis, AHE rose 4.3% last month, matching estimates.

Notably, the jobless rate moved up to 3.9%, above every estimate. The participation rate was steady at 62.5%.

The household survey showed a 184,000 decline. That was the third consecutive drop and the fourth in five months.

Bears will invariably highlight the disparity between the household print and the NFP headline. Again.

It’s fair to say Friday’s release was at least partially amenable to a “Goldilocks” spin with the caveat that the two-tenths increase in the jobless rate was perhaps a bit much. A “perfect” soft landing print would’ve been 3.8%, but 3.9%’s hardly high.

Bottom line: The combination of i) a 275,000 headline jobs print, ii) softer, but still very robust, post-revision readings for the prior two months, iii) a meaningful uptick in the unemployment rate and, critically, iv) a MoM AHE print that undershot materially, constitutes a “something for everyone” report.

Put differently: If you have a narrative, you can support it with the latest US jobs report. And the Fed’s narrative (or Jerome Powell’s narrative, anyway), is that rate cuts are coming.


 

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2 thoughts on “US Jobs Report Offers Something For Everyone

  1. Curious if any of the data wonks here know how much influence seasonal and other adjustments have on both NFP and the Household Survey. Specifically, is one less doctored up by assumptions and such?

    1. Don’t know, here might be a good place to start – would be interested in any conclusions you draw

      https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm

      Whenever I dig into (read: scrape lightly at) economic data methodologies, I come away impressed at how difficult it is to collect the data and reminded that month-to-month changes really should be disregarded. Even irritating adjustments (e.g. birth-death) have a rationale. All the imperfection, inconsistencies, and revisions are frustrating but, hey, we could do it like China.

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