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US Jobless Claims Uptick Looks Like Another False Alarm
US jobless claim were a nonevent Thursday. I mention them only in the context of the two prior weeks, which saw meaningful increases.
Initial claims remain very subdued by historical standards, but the headline did rise 38,000 over two weeks late last month.
In the week to February 3, by contrast, claims slipped to 218,000. That was below consensus. The median was 220,000, for whatever that's worth (i.e., not much).
The four-week average is now 212,250. That's the highest since December 23
Check out the article in today’s FT titled “Employers hold the cards now’ as power shifts in US jobs market”
Most labor metrics are coincident or lagging indicators. Average work week is one exception. The distortions from covid makes models less reliable though.