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‘Key Services Sector Hiring Gauge Plunges!’ Is A Headline You’ll Probably Click
To the extent markets needed an "offset" for a hot NFP print and a commensurately warm read on US wage growth, a lackluster update on services sector activity obliged.
ISM services came in at just 50.6 for December in the last of this week's top-tier data releases out of the world's largest economy.
That was below every estimate from 52 people who waste their lives for a living. The range of guesses, from 52 economists, was 50.7 to 54.
The final read on S&P Global's US services index fo
An unbiased analysis with no clear conclusion is very refreshing. Thank you!
My guess only. Most FOMC members, looking at the rollover in shelter CPI, continuing slack in goods, and various core and super-core CPI/PCE measures, are feeling fairly confident that inflation is on the desired trajectory. Their focus has shifted to achieving a soft landing which, they think, will elevate them high in the historical pantheon of skillful and successful Federal Reserves. Based on China struggling, ROW looking weak, and almost every precedent for rate cut periods, they probably think a hard landing is more of a risk than no-landing. Further, a hard landing automatically disqualifies them from elevation (game over, no pantheon), while a no-landing means they get to keep playing for their place in history. So they will be more attentive to weak economic data than to strong data. Again, purely speculation.
The canary is just tuckered out after a long squawk.