Fed Gets Good News In Critical Spending, Inflation Update
Markets and policymakers were handed what looked, on the surface anyway, like a Goldilocks US personal income and spending report on Friday.
The data, released ahead of what might as well be a holiday weekend, showed nominal consumption rose 0.1% in May from the prior month, while real personal spending was flat. Consensus expected a 0.2% increase on the headline spending print and a slight uptick in real spending.
The figures came as something of a relief following a sharp upward revision to
I agree with you here on your read. Fed will go 1/4% in july. With disinflation intact, there is a very strong chance that will be the last hike, despite hawkish commentary by powell at sintra.
As inflation gradually recedes, real rates go up as long as the fomc stands pat.
As Powell says, it is hard to discern any disflation in core PCE. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16EQ4 (monthly annualized).