Not There Yet
Those expecting a third consecutive downside surprise from consumer price growth in the US were disappointed on Thursday. December's CPI report printed in line with estimates, largely consistent with the peak inflation narrative, but not the stuff rollicking rallies are made of.
In themselves, the as-expected figures constituted decent news, but markets were plainly hoping for an unequivocal excuse to storm higher. The numbers were a lot of things, some of them good, but I don't think they were
Most thorough but concise article on the CPI numbers I’ve seen today. Good stuff.
I agree. He’s the best – consistently good with the numbers. Stepping back though, I still keep an eye on the worst-case scenario.
There’re other commenters out there, like Mike Burry, who called the 2022 down-cycle, and said earlier this month that the market will take another leg down this year. Given recent economic news and uncertainty, I was steeling myself for recession anyway.
Whether or how the economy evolves this year should be clear by September. In the meantime, I plan to practice breathing, staying away from disagreeable food, and keeping up with ongoing developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Sounds like a good plan for 2023. I recently picked up “War and Peace”- so that should keep me going for awhile. I love the messy intersection of history, culture, philosophy, human emotions, love and the unexplainable and unknowable part of being human. I definitely would have fallen in love with Leo.
Clearly inflation has stalled, seems like you would want to do one more 50bps before backing off. It seems like a 25bps change might cause an equity rally.
agree assuming everything status quo… though earnings meets, misses, and forecasts will also influence markets and thereby financial conditions btw now and FOMC…