Done By March?

Barring some unexpected turn, the Fed will almost surely downshift to "regular" rate hike increments early next month. Although December's CPI report was amenable to a "not there yet" interpretation (that's the angle I took), it nevertheless underscored the peak inflation narrative. Anything can happen, but absent another energy shock or, say, a geopolitical event that introduces new supply chain frictions, it's not likely that headline price growth in the US will re-accelerate anywhere near t