On Saturday evening, someone told me they were headed to their first cocktail party in
Year: 2022
What ‘Usually’ Happens To The S&P After Curve Inversions
Stocks are looking past rising yields in part because the move in reals merely marks
Zoltan Pozsar’s Fairy Tale
Zoltan Pozsar scarcely needs to exalt himself. The financial media does that for him. In
Assets Not Pricing ‘Inevitable’ Recession, Former Dudley Employer Says
Inevitably, Bill Dudley’s “inevitable” recession call prompted pushback from some market participants and served as
Inversions And Reversions
It’s a good thing the yield curve doesn’t matter. If it did, we’d be in
Tiny Homes, Large Bubbles And The Biggest Picture
Earlier this week, shares of Toll Brothers fell sharply amid a broad decline in homebuilders
Clash Of The US Factory Surveys
In what the pessimists among you might fairly characterize as a somewhat foreboding development, the
Jobs Report Clears Path For Fed To Hike US Into Recession
The US economy added 431,000 jobs in March, the BLS said Friday. It was another
Bombs Over Belgorod
Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have “practically” decimated Ukraine’s air force and
‘My Wallet Shrivels Just Writing This’: Euro CPI Shocker Elicits Incredulity
“That’s a big number.” “Those are pretty ugly prints.” Those (real) quotes give you a
US Housing Bubble Tested As Mortgage Rates Go Vertical
A few days ago, one regular reader ventured a quip about my (admittedly repetitive) characterization
Cartoon Tyrant
One problem with spending decades cultivating fear among friends, foes and everyone in-between, is that
Goldman Has 7 Reasons Why Stocks Didn’t Crash
Although the S&P just logged its first losing quarter since the onset of the pandemic,
Biden’s ‘Shock And Awe’ Oil Gambit Faces Long Odds
Frustrated by a recalcitrant OPEC and wary of ongoing, energy-driven inflation ahead of the US
America’s Spendthrifts Stare Down Inflation Dragon
Real personal spending fell twice as much as expected in the US last month, underscoring
Bassman: Fed ‘Backed Into A Corner’
Long-term US rates at ~2.50% are not consistent with ~5% inflation unless the Fed invokes
These ‘Crucial’ Levels Matter Most In News-Driven Market
In early February, one bank’s equity derivatives team suggested market participants were assigning too much
In Germany, Inflation Just Flew Off The Charts
German inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in decades in March, preliminary figures released on
US Private Sector Hiring Was Robust In March
Private sector US employers added 455,000 jobs in March, ADP said Wednesday. It was a
‘No Breakthrough’
Peace talks in Istanbul yielded “no breakthrough,” the Kremlin said Wednesday. Lots of work remains
Revenge Of The Meme Stock Mania
Late last week, Goldman noted that retail investor activity was picking back up, with animal
As 2s10s Inverts, Dudley Says US Recession ‘Inevitable’
Two days ago, in “Fatalism Sets In As Curve Starts Recession Clock,” I wrote that
Wage-Price Spiral Beckons As Americans Quit By The Millions
Job openings barely budged and the quit rate rose in February, closely watched data out
Inflation Goes From ‘Nonissue’ To National Obsession In Six Months
A gauge of US consumer confidence improved in March despite — and I don’t know
McElligott On ‘Burning’ Macro And Stocks ‘Just Winning On All Fronts’
“Stuff is breaking,” macro assets are chaotic and “burning,” but “goofy-ol’” stocks continue to press
Dramatic Moves, Someone To Hang
Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself presided over the latest round of peace talks between Ukraine and
Breaking: Fed Finds Cause Of Soaring Inflation
The Fed knows who to blame for the highest US inflation in a generation. Spoiler
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