Harley Bassman’s Top Trades For 2023
I've offered the snark that "life is transitory," which, while true, isn't helpful. A cohort of super-smart experts has suggested CPI can return to ~2% by year-end, and the market agrees, which is why it's pricing in rate cuts next summer. I'm not so sanguine.
A Commentary by Harley Bassman
Come this time every year, I publish a list of "investments" that I think will do well over the intermediate horizon -- two to five years. These are not meant to be nips to blips RV trades, but rather long
H-Man, super, super post by Harley.
Yeah, Harley’s great. One of only three people who get guest spots here these days.
I do love me some Harley. His confidence in his good sense logic always shines through in his writing. Thanks for sharing his insights…. and yours. The last five paragraphs of your first monthly newsletter were superb. Instead of predictions you gave us choices, as in: if A, then this will happen but if B, then expect that. You show us the range of outcomes.
I too have great respect and affection for Harley Bassman. I continue to learn a lot every time I read him. One of the best explainers I have ever encountered. He always shows his work, which I was forced to do by my sixth grade math teacher, Miss Piper, who didn’t give credit for a correct answer with no visible work. She told me Stop arguing, this isn’t just a math class: we’re trying to teach you ow to think. Thank you Miss Piper : thank you Harley Bassman. To quote Morris Sachs: The money is in the thinking, not the trading….
Harley killed it with $PFIX this year
Harley tells the truth. I do not invest in the vehicles he names above. But I like Harley’s timely, straight-forward, common sense view of the broader economy (e.g. GDP = number of Workers * Hours worked * Productivity).
I share Harley’s take on the value of immigration in the US economy. With the retirement of boomers (I’m one of them, though I’m not retiring yet), we need to continue absorbing immigrants from Latin America, whether it’s legal immigration or not.
Some people do not like immigrants because they’re “different” (usually not white). But to Harley’s point, immigrants will work and pay taxes. Most do not commit crimes. Immigrants create value in our society. For my money, immigrants can use our schools and churches and stores. They can rent apartments, buy homes, shop for goods. I see nothing wrong with them coming to the US. It just needs to happen in an orderly manner.
Like Harley says, cutting immigration yields higher prices and a slower economy. No thanks. Bring on the immigrants!