China’s ‘Giant Wave’
"Official COVID case counts have been rendered meaningless."
So declared Bloomberg on Monday, in an article documenting the "rapid," unchecked spread of the virus across the world's most populous nation following the abrupt relaxation of containment measures last week.
I have some potentially distressing news: China's official COVID case counts were always "meaningless."
You won't get a concession on that point from any media outlets keen to preserve access to the Mainland, though. And to be
I’m sure Captain Tripps’ unabated run through unvaccinated China will have no impact on entrenched global inflation.
No surprise – have we all forgotten the scenes from overrun hospitals in Houston, Dallas and Florida?
We like to think that Xi’s about face was a capitulation. Perhaps, but might it be something designed to discredit the protestors and those in government who advocated for lifting the lock down?
Personally I found it incredibly perplexing if not completely ignorant that the “State” would not have waited at least until Springtime to reduce Covid protocols (at least publicly)…any amateur epidemiologist knows how transmissible the new BQ1, BQ1.1, and XBB strains are…
I had concerns about China before the pandemic, at this point I just don’t see how things can possibly end well. Covid, workforce growth, onshoring, demand destruction, property values, the list goes on and on.
Interesting to see how long the bullish “China reopens” sentiment can surf the growing reality waves of Covid.
Re: only seven people will know the true death toll, I recommend James Palmer’s excellent essay ‘Nobody Knows Anything About China’ (https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21/nobody-knows-anything-about-china/)
There is almost no chance that anyone will know the death toll – within the order of magnitude is the best even the Politburo can hope for. This isn’t because of some vast conspiracy, but because every official from the hospital upwards will have an incentive to apply a gentle massage to the figures, the cumulative effect of which will obscure the death toll. Combine this with China’s long-standing policy of certifying deaths from respiratory disease as due to underlying conditions (note: this isn’t a conspiracy, just a way they’ve chosen to cut the data which is similar across East Asia) and there’s very little chance of a true picture emerging.
From the outside, we’ll have to make do with proxies – activity at crematoriums, availability of fever medication and any other signal we can perceive.
Considering China’s willful avoidance to fully confront COVID-19, as we have observed it for several years now, and now China’s apparent desire today to simply wish it away, the delusion of Chinese government leadership and its disorientation from reality is plain to see.
I cannot help but recall the palpable excitement of the period from Nixon’s meeting with Mao in mid-70’s, which evolved to regular dialogue with China’s leaders over the next few decades. It enabled interaction with China among business leaders, which created successful, ongoing business relationships, and even friendships. Operations in Hong Kong, a British colony at the time, were already busy during those decades, and went into hyper-overdrive as the economic engine of China grew.
The gang of seven, the leaders of the CCP today, have only begun to show their true colors. Jack Ma’s experience with his country’s leaders and their handling of Alibaba provides an illustration. Jack Ma, in reaction to government COVID policies, as some of you may recall, moved to Tokyo. Smart move.