Overthrowing Xi Could Mean The End Of The World
I assume this is obvious, but what's obvious to me isn't always clear to the rest of humanity, so it's worth a mention: In the highly unlikely event that widespread protests in China resulted in a change of government, local equities would almost surely collapse, spreads would likely explode wider and government debt would be at risk of outright repudiation.
Note that Mainland markets would probably implode even in the event of a relatively orderly transition to democratic governance. And any s
It was not all that long ago that China was a patchwork of fiefdoms run by warlords whose only goal was self-enrichment. If push came to shove, how many Chinese really want to return to those glorious days?
TBF, letting people yell in the streets is working fine for Iran. As long as the army/security apparatus remains faithful to the power in place, it’s hard for that power to ‘lose’ even if they don’t really control things anymore.
That is indeed a tail risk. Such regimes are very experienced in dealing with dissent, the current situation in China is nowhere near critical for CCP.
The most likely outcome I can see coming out of sustained protests is Xi shifting gears on Covid zero basing it on the “science” that Covid-19 is no longer considered pandemic but endemic. It’ll give the people what they want and end the protests. He’ll follow that up by arresting and prosecuting as many protestors as he possibly can to threaten the populous from ever protesting his policies again.
indeed, most likely. this is exactly how Putin dealt with mass protests in the past. first, appease the masses. second, prosecute the activists.
Yes, that’s the playbook. Also, quarantines may be limited to the elderly and others that are most at risk. The rest will be allowed movement with constant rigorous surveillance which is what every totalitarian autocrat craves.
The biggest threat to Xi is if one way or another he botches handling the protests- then he will face internal CCP dissent and could be ousted from inside the CCP. The protests are unlikely to directly lead to regime change. The internal leadership will oust Xi and then blame his poor leadership for the difficulties- thus sacrificing him in order to maintain their own power. Machievelli outlined this process hundreds of years ago- the only difference is M suggested ousting a number 2 or 3 to achieve this rather than the number 1 leader.
Or Xi will oust his number 2 who ran the lockdowns in Shanghai to save himself
In that vein, he can push the decision making on Covid measures down to regional leaders. It can be a poisoned chalice for the recipients of those generous gifts.
This is a pretty typical maneuver on his part.
And …. that’s what he did.
Do it well, maybe earn a promotion. “Fail” = you’ll be hauled in for a little chat with some anti-corruption body.
Want to “express solidarity with the protesters and … otherwise fan the proverbial flames.”? Sit on your front porch and sing this. Taiwan radio stations e.g. ICRT played it on a loop back in 1989. We put it up on MuseScore mostly to be mischievous. A few Chinese acquaintances helped us with the lyrics. There will always be an occasion for this song in China.
https://musescore.com/user/26613006/scores/5660976?share=copy_link
RIA is, I think, correct in saying that the biggest threat Xi faces is from the CCP if, for example, he decides to unleash a heavy-handed response to the protests similar to the response to the Tienanmen protests in 1989. But even without that, Xi is very aware of the way the West has responded to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, with a unanimity the NATO countries have rarely — if ever — shown. Whether the West would respond in a comparable manner to the Chinese government brutally cracking down on its own populace is an open question. But reinforcing that uncertainty in Xi’s mind doesn’t seem like such a terrible idea.
The west’s response to the takeover of HK may be more relevant to his thinking.
Regrettably, I think the world is safe.
CCP-affiliated sources (Xinhau, Global Times) seem to be hinting at abandoning ZC policy.
Revenge of Hu Jintao. It’s not about Covid.