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Fed Risks ‘Disaster’ As Americans’ Credit Card Balances Soar
For the US economy to fall into a proper recession (as opposed to a "technical recession," a distinction which suddenly matters), the consumer has to falter.
And, as it turns out, there's evidence the consumer is faltering. Just not as quickly as you might expect given exceptionally onerous macro realities.
The consumption component of GDP weakened in Q2, the advance read on second quarter growth showed. The lackluster print followed a sharp downward revision to first quarter consumption. Stil
In less than a month from now we could see either a strike or a lockout of the entire U.S. rail industry, nationwide. I’d be keeping this on my radar.
U.S. Railroad Workers Inch Closer to a Possible National Strike
After Biden appointed an emergency board to help resolve the labor dispute, rail workers warn: “We have the ability to stop the trains from moving.”
https://inthesetimes.com/article/railroad-workers-strike-biden-board-bnsf-union-pacific-amtrak
Railroad Profit-Making Strategy Comes at a Cost
A looming strike and struggles with a proposed merger could reflect a reckoning for the rail industry’s determined efforts to squeeze capacity.
https://prospect.org/economy/railroad-profit-making-strategy-comes-at-a-cost/
Didn’t want to deal with signing in to your second link, but I’d wager that it covers the actions of that guy who “rationalized” one of the Canadian carriers and was subsequently was lured down to CSX to work his Al Dunlop-like magic there as well.
Cutting jobs and routes only works until it doesn’t. Like now.
Also strange is that last night i was listening to “Flirting With Disaster” by Molly Hatchett, weighing whether to include it on a set list for a party on November 5th. An excellent song now and maybe apropos as we watch the mid-term elections.
Fun to play as well.
Hate to sound like a broken record, but wherever I go here (in NYC and beyond), folks are spending like it’s 1999. Just sayin’…
What is the nominal interest rate for consumer credit, higher or lower than comparable marches toward recession? If it is more or less expensive than comparable periods, then we might have an indication of something. I am not sure exactly what MH was writing about with “Flirting With Disaster” inflation could surely have been part of the sentiment, but at least for the optimist the song was released right around peak.
Perhaps all those with new jobs in July (528k) were spending money in June knowing they signed up for a job!