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Goldman’s 2023 Recession EPS Case Is BofA’s Base Case
"The larger risk to 2023 EPS is a recession," Goldman's David Kostin said, in the course of cutting
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An S&P of 3600 with earnings of $200 for an 18x multiple still seems high to me. It sure would have looked high to Ben Graham.
In case S&P 500 results have been one large distorted if not manipulated mirage since the beginning of the pandemic, its important to note that S&P 500 earnings hit an all time record high of just under $140 in December 2019 (and were also starting to roll lower just prior to the pandemic).
The 2008 recession sent S&P 500 earnings back to levels previously seen 15+ years prior to the 2008 recession. The 2001 recession (much milder) sent S&P 500 earnings back to levels previously seen 7+ years prior to the 2001 recession.
7+ years ago (2015/2016), S&P 500 earnings were under $100