Bliss
As regular readers are apprised, I have no "heroes," and to the extent I revere any human beings other than myself, none of them are in the money management business.
That said, I do admire Warren Buffett (standard-bearer for adult men and women inexplicably disposed to worshipping other adults for the "heroic" feat of amassing large sums of money), for one thing: Acknowledging that he generally hasn't the slightest clue where equities are going in the near- to medium-term, such things being co
As a Bloomberg columnist pointed out over the weekend, there’s one other factor behind the inflation the world is experiencing: the end of, or at least slow demise, of globalization. Brexit, Trump, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the deepening clash between Team Democracy and Team Autocracy. Call it what you will, but the Great Moderation we enjoyed for twenty years thanks largely in part to a high degree of global economic integration appears to be one for the history books. I don’t know what comes next, but we should all hope it doesn’t look like the 1920s and ’30s.
I think we could be heading back to revisit the 20’s- 30’s period. It seems like the West bought on to this fantasy that if China and Russia could be integrated into our system than eventually they would open their societies to become democratic. It did seem that in the 90’s the world was heading in that direction. But unfortunately it seems now with Xi and Putin in power that they have turned the power dynamics of their countries back to the way it was in the 50’s. But the West refuses to believe it. If the citizens of Europe freeze this winter because Putin shuts off the gas and oil, I can see Russia putting up a wall again.
H-Man, Occam’s Razor suggests it is simply the business cycle and when it runs it course, those who have powder will hunt and those who don’t will go hungry.
I love the willful ignorance of the “experts”: Germany does not have “DC deficits”, the ECB is not the Fed, and blaming retail investors (gamblers) for inflation is as ad-hominem as Biden’s silly misdirections about corporate price gouging. Inflation and a subsequent Recession are circumnavigating the globe much like this covid pandemic.
I’m actually not surprised that a former super power with nuclear weapons starting a land-war in Europe is a catalyst for a Recession (perversely triggered by sanctions and Inflation)… I just hope populists (and isolationists) don’t get much real power with their knee-jerk reactions as I’d hate to see another 1914 or 1939.