‘COVID Zero’ Untenable Amid ‘Severe’ Chinese Economic Drag
There was no respite from Chinese economic gloom on Thursday, as Mainland markets came back online after a five-day holiday.
While local shares managed to climb, a horrendous read on the Caixin services PMI underscored the impact of lockdowns on the world's second largest economy.
The headline print, 36.2, was the lowest since February of 2020 (figure below), and missed consensus by a mile. It marked the second month of contraction and served as a grim reminder of the message conveyed by the o
“almost surely outweighs the public health benefits considering advances in vaccines, therapeutics and generalized care.“
If china’s vaccine is impotent against new variants advances in generalized care will go out the window. Our health care system was strained by the virus, China’s will implode in a scenario of rampant virus spread with little help from vaccination. I’m unaware of advances in Chinese therapeutics, but to use western therapeutics is almost certainly untenable to the party, no?
The most important thing in Beijing is social stability. You can’t lock people in their homes forever. Eventually, people are going to get restless and if there’s anything the Party is allergic to, it’s a restless populace. Unless they know something everyone else doesn’t, their vaccine isn’t totally “impotent,” and Omicron isn’t as severe. The longer he doubles down on this, the harder it’ll be to do an about-face. Surely this has occurred to the Party, though, and I imagine there’s a lot of consternation about where to go from here. Because it isn’t working. That’s the bottom line: Even if you go by the official virus numbers, the strategy is failing. They aren’t containing it. Nor will they be able to contain it going forward.
Looking around the globe, you have to wonder how much longer the US economy can remain “hot”. Not much longer would be my answer- by early next year if not sooner I think the party is going to be over.
It is kinda blows any semi-logical brain to smithereens, how both Putin and Xi have all this power and each has gone and shot himself in the foot. Who would have thought two men’s egos could cause so much unnecessary suffering.
very well said !!
This is an astonishing own goal by Xi.
Unlike the Fed, he has tools that will directly address his most immediate problem(s). China could rebrand Western mRNA vaccines and antivirals as their own and get their vulnerable population vaxed, boosted, and treated; that will address Covid. It could also pressure Putin to conclude his special military operation; that will address the coming demand slump from global recession.