Scorching Wages Hide Record Drop In Inflation-Adjusted Pay
Headed into the weekend, top-tier US data provided some incremental evidence to support the contention that Q1 marked the peak in core inflation.
However, a scorching-hot read on a key indicator of compensation had the potential to stoke fears of a wage-price spiral, even as a cursory look under the hood revealed the tragic plight of the American worker in 2022.
The employment cost index surged 1.4% in the first quarter, the BLS said Friday. It was the hottest print in history (figure below),
I am always amazed at how little people pay attention to what’s going on around them. So paying attention, and being curious, is an edge…The job description at the the fed is a focussed oxymoron. The fact is, nobody pays enough aatention to lag time, be it a recession forecast by an inverted yield curve, or a slowdown in inflation abetted by the fed raising rates. Most people don’t even know what their investing time horizon is. Warren does-forever: glib but true. The sociopathic grandpa wins again.
Re:. QE 2023:
“Preparing for the next recession means not only improving existing stabilizers but expanding their reach to other forms of social support and building the ‘pipes’ to distribute relief in a timely manner,” Yellen said.”
Neil Young said,
“We got a thousand points of light
For the homeless man
We got a kinder, gentler machine gun hand
We got department stores and toilet paper
Got Styrofoam boxes for the ozone layer …
“
When Frank Fitzsimmons was persident of the teamsteers, he routinely won 10% + annual raises in the master freight agreement. This was a later stage of the inflation story- wages trying to play catchup ball.