BofA’s Hartnett Talks ‘Pain, Exit’ Level After ‘Just Awful’ Month

BofA’s Hartnett Talks ‘Pain, Exit’ Level After ‘Just Awful’ Month

Stocks may be the best inflation hedge on the board, but measured in real terms, US equities are on track for their worst annual performance in almost 50 years. That was one notable takeaway from the latest weekly missive by BofA's Michael Hartnett, who wrote that "adjusted for inflation," US stocks are down more than 18%, on course for the "worst annual drop since 1974." The figure (below) illustrates the point. The four-week moving average for global equity fund flows is now in negative t
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8 thoughts on “BofA’s Hartnett Talks ‘Pain, Exit’ Level After ‘Just Awful’ Month

  1. Off to a bad start on 2022, and headed to generational pain going into 2023. We’re a long way from even starting a meltdown. Hang on kids, those nft gems are losing altitude every second.

  2. I feel like there’s one more squeeze up here. It feels like 1999/2007 to me. We’ll see.

    What I do know is that GDP will not be negative next quarter. The Ds control both houses and government and spending will not be a negative drag on GDP again until after the mid-terms unless inflation re-accelerates (which I find highly unlikely). Heck, Teasury might use every lever they have to keep government spending up until/through Sept. Plus trade deficit will stabilize at least to some degree as the backlog of goods sitting off shore has diminished.

    The real economic destruction from current and near term FED moves will be felt next year. I also worry that if the Rs take back the house, government spending will go down massively making what would otherwise be an economic soft patch/minor recession into a deep recession.

  3. With the US dollar at a 20 year high, driven by Fed start of QT and Ukraine (safe US), and 40+% of S&P 500 profits from outside of the US, I don’t see equities turning around anytime soon.

  4. It’s pretty obvious that in this era, many people have never been exposed to inflation or understand the concepts of present and future value. In a wider macroeconomic perspective, if you’ve gained a massive amount of profit during the last 12 years, why would you think that’s a sustainable trend?

    “The time value of money is a concept that states a dollar today is always worth more than a dollar tomorrow (or a year from now).”

    Risk at this point in time isn’t going to be rewarded!

  5. My portfolios are defensively positioned and the equity portion is nicely outperforming the benchmark, but today still felt like crap. Because it was crap. Gonna do some digesting of this close.

  6. Managements who have yet to report / guide may be trimming their planned guidance. When the biggest and strongest companies in the world (ex-energy) are guiding down, what’s the benefit to being a hero?

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