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Chinese Economy Is Magic 8-Ball: ‘Reply Hazy’
It wasn't all bad news in China to start the new week.
Although stocks suffered as concerns mounted about the economic (and social) toll of the Shanghai lockdowns, credit data for March was much stronger than expected.
New yuan loans were 3.13 trillion last month (figure below), easily ahead of consensus and topping the highest estimate from nearly two-dozen economists.
Aggregate financing, at 4.65 trillion yuan, beat by more than a trillion, and also topped the highest guess.
The data com
and the Chinese gain from the war in Ukraine by buying oil at heavily discounted prices from the Russians.
Hello, Dean. That’s true. But the Chinese have multiple priorities, needs, and aspirations, and they seem confused – as if they have too many spinning plates and they’re uncertain as to which ones present more importance. If the Chinese didn’t have some useless affection for a certain Russian Jackass, they could have it both ways by taking Russian oil and gas and decrying Putin’s murderous invasion. I think the challenges for the Chinese in this moment may be influenced by a certain amount of hubris about their ability to manage their own affairs, even in light of the property debacle that continues to eat away at their economic undersides.
Last week I asked a friend from Shanghai how her family back home was faring. An interesting take:
“I spoke with my mother and brothers: they are all locked down in their separate
homes.
Chinese have been trained to be docile, they seem to be quite resigned to the
fact they might be restrained at home for a period of time. The lockdown came at
a very short notice for my brother in downtown Shanghai.
They are calm which helps to reduce my level of nervousness.”