US Recession: ‘Soooo Consensus’
A trying week for markets and the international community ended with more bloodshed in Ukraine and losses on Wall Street, where US shares snapped a three-week win streak amid a cacophony of hawkish Fed banter.
Consensus is now coalescing around the inevitability of a recession in the world's largest economy. It'll be a while before analysts adopt a downturn as their base case, but that's certainly the direction of travel. Bill Dudley darkened investors' doorstep again with another dour Bloomber
H-Man, the market seems to have blinders when it comes to what is evolving both domestically and internationally. You have to wonder what it will take to see the light.
I think forward guidance on upcoming earnings calls is the final bit of info we’re all waiting for. Enough with the Fedspeak for a while. What are companies seeing and expecting? It’s their cash flow streams we’re all buying into (…or betting against, as the case may be).
Recession may be consensus among professional investors and positioning defensive among HFs but mechanical money has been buying (equities) and retail money is still BTD.
A couple of years ago when I was into forecasting tournaments (i.e., Philip Tetlock’s GJP), I stumbled upon this guy when the question was, “Will the yield curve invert?”
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/03/bond-market-says-no-recession-in-cards.html
I have since followed him, and gotten a lot of chuckles about how wrong he’s been about other things—he maintained forever that COVID was no worse than the flu—but I’ve found he’s had some good insights into macro economics.