Update: Late Sunday (or early Monday, depending on where you reside), AFP reported that Emmanuel Macron proposed a summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. Both sides reportedly accepted. Later, the White House confirmed an agreement “in principle.” The French government said the meeting “can only be held on the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine.”
Vladimir Putin is planning “the biggest war in Europe since 1945,” Boris Johnson told the BBC, in an interview from Germany, where leaders convened over the weekend for the annual Munich Security Conference.
“All signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun,” Johnson said, in remarks that echoed Joe Biden’s contention that Putin has decided to move ahead with an invasion, including a siege on Kyiv. Biden called a National Security Council meeting for Sunday.
Meanwhile, Russia and Belarus said the largest joint military exercises in recent memory won’t end on schedule. Russia said previously that participating troops would return to bases starting Sunday or Monday. Just four days ago, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei promised that “not a single serviceman, not a single unit of military equipment from Russia will remain after the completion of drills.” Technically, Belarus can still make that claim, but Makei’s pledge is meaningless if the exercises never conclude.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry cited the deteriorating situation in Donbas in explaining the decision to extend the drills. Tens of thousands have now fled Donbas for Rostov, Tass reported, citing a count from Russian officials. Tass’s homepage was a veritable potluck supper of pretext. “Kyiv launches plan for invading DPR with West’s approval,” one headline read. “Kyiv forces shell six areas in DPR,” said another. And so on. Additional reporting from Tass said each refugee arriving in Rostov will receive 10,000 rubles on instructions from Putin.
Note that the links to Tass in the preceding two paragraphs are provided out of respect for sourcing decorum. Generally speaking, using direct quotes without links is poor form. That said, I strongly advise readers against clicking through to Tass.
In a lengthy piece, The New York Times, which has reporters on the ground, described the myriad ways in which Russia and allied separatists might go about engineering a narrative for Putin. “Intense artillery barrages targeted a pocket of government-controlled territory around the town of Svitlodarsk — a stray shell from returning government fire risks hitting a chemical plant about six miles away in separatist-controlled territory,” the linked article said, noting that the plant is home to a dozen pipelines of ammonia gas. “An explosion there could produce a toxic cloud that could serve as an excuse for a Russian invasion,” the Times wrote.
In addition to that potential calamity, a key water network may have suffered damage in weekend shelling. In a separate article, a handful of Times reporters who, by their account, narrowly escaped a mortar attack while participating in “a hastily arranged press tour to a tractor repair facility,” described why that’s especially perilous. “A cutoff of that water supply in fighting in 2014 had hastened an outflow of refugees from [Donetsk],” Valerie Hopkins, Andrew Kramer and Ivan Nechepurenko wrote, noting that according to a spokesman for the DPR cited by Interfax, a pumping station and water pipes are in imminent peril. As the Times put it, “the loss of water for residents in the Russian-backed areas came as a setback for Ukraine, reinforcing Russian assertions of increasingly dire conditions for civilians.”
At the same time, separatists in both self-proclaimed republics told civilians to evacuate, despite public assurances from Kyiv that Ukraine doesn’t intend to use force. The leader of the DPR pushed the issue, calling on “all men of the republic who are able to hold weapons in their hands, to stand up for their families, their children, wives and mothers,” an allusion to (fictional) plans for a government attack. Times reporters who spoke to evacuees on the border said refugees were convinced that Ukrainian forces were plotting an assault, a belief Hopkins, Kramer and Nechepurenko attributed to locals’ “steady diet of Russian state news reports.”
“There is a playbook of Russian aggression,” Kamala Harris said, addressing the Munich conference. “Disinformation, lies and propaganda.”
To be clear, “disinformation, lies and propaganda” is everyone’s playbook. But, as I discussed at length here last week, the fact that “we’re not so innocent ourselves,” as one former US president put it, doesn’t mean citizens in Western democracies should accept Kremlin propaganda on the way to implicitly countenancing a war of conquest by an aging autocrat seemingly keen to leave an even bigger mark on history than he’s already made.
We often pretend as though America was somehow pure of heart and mind prior to Vietnam. Consider this: The US is a country founded on genocide and slavery. The Native American population and their way of life was systematically driven to the brink of extinction. Today, it exists almost exclusively on reservations. Until the Civil War, human beings were held as property — beaten, raped and murdered routinely. Did that history somehow rule out or obviate the moral imperative of US intervention to defeat the Nazis? If the answer to that question is “No!”, then why is the answer not similarly emphatic when the (implicit) question is whether America’s sundry tragic military misadventures in the Pax Americana era mean Washington has no “right” to use any means necessary to stop Vladimir Putin from taking the first step towards a westward expansion of Russia via a sweeping military campaign at the likely cost of millions of lives?
I realize that’s an uncomfortable paragraph. But here’s why I wrote it: Kremlin “Whataboutism” often relies on the unspoken assertion that due to the many horrors of US military adventurism, Russia has carte blanche to do whatever it pleases, even when that entails extraterritorial assassinations, annexations and, now, the prospective conquest of an entire country. If that’s a proposition you’re willing to accept, then that’s your prerogative. Just be sure you know what you’re accepting.
For his part, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has seen enough. In Munich, he accused NATO of “appeasement” in the alliance’s approach to Putin, and said Ukraine now shoulders the impossible burden of defending the West from the Russian military. “We have the right to ask for a move from the appeasement policy to action,” he insisted, chiding the world.
In the same BBC interview, Johnson said “the lesson of [Crimea and Ukraine in 2014] is that you can’t just let Putin get away with it.” Depending on Putin’s actions, Russian companies may be cut off from accessing dollars and pounds, a financial death sentence, notwithstanding whatever swaps Beijing might (or might not) be willing to offer.
Although it’ll take much more than an impassioned Zelenskiy speech to compel the US and the UK to seriously consider a military deterrent, Western leaders seem to be reluctantly waking up to the possibility that economic sanctions might prove insufficient this time.
“If [Putin] thinks he’s going to get less NATO as a result of this, he’s totally wrong,” Johnson went on to say.
Zelenskiy, a career comedian, is fresh out of jokes. “What are you waiting for?”, he asked. “We don’t need your sanctions after the war starts, we have no borders and parts of our country are occupied.”
All well and good, but any and all sanctions as normally implemented by USA USA won’t hinder Russia’s elite from buying real estate and a lux lifestyle for their families around the world and investment bankers from NY and London continuing their cash flow expo from their “investments”.
Really a commendable post on this Topic which by any acceptable standard is a ” Watch what they do , not what they say ” moment . Very unfortunate circumstances have brought us collectively to this point and the responsibility must be shared . I still think there will be a deal at the 11th hour kicking the can down the road AGAIN .
“We don’t need your sanctions after the war starts, we have no borders and parts of our country are occupied.” That would theoretically preclude NATO entrance as written. Putin’s army is funded with petrodollars and sitting by the border could negotiate a new border and then destabilize it.
Show of force win for Putin.
Or death and destruction due to a mishap or intent.
No matter the outcome every small country on the planet is going to want their own nuclear weapons.
Maybe North Korea can bail Ukraine out.
All very sickening.
The irony is that Ukraine had nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union, and gave them up.
western leader statements about imminent invasion should be taken as self serving statements by politicians. if invasion happens they claim they were not unprepared and we should trust the intelligence agencies. if no invasion then they stood up to russia and putin backed down. so a statement about invasion should be expected no matter the actual situation and by itself means nothing.
You’re validating the Western strategy. The warnings are only useful of an invasion is actually likely. It’s pretty reasonable to do what you can to prevent conflict without instigation or escalation.
let me caveat by saying i know nothing about the actual situation. but knowing what we do about the russian and us invasions of afghanistan and us invasion of iraq, an invasion of ukraine seems like a military and political disaster for russia. they could undoubtedly move rapidly into the country taking whatever territory they want. but then what? the force is much too small to secure the country. soon after, guerrilla war will begin. all roads will be lined with ieds much more than iraq. portable anti aircraft and anti tank weapons will be everywhere. a complete military nightmare
Michael, With all due respect, this comment is off base. Your comparison is apples-to-oranges. Putin wants to commandeer the country, not occupy it. This would be a pure war of conquest. A literal, old school, take over. There’s no strategic “objective.” Well, there is — namely, seizing it. All of it.
The idea here, generally speaking, is to install a Kremlin satellite regime in Kyiv by force and turn it into a client state — forever. And, obviously, there’s a lot of history here.
Long story short: This isn’t what you seem to think it is. Comparisons to Iraq and Afghanistan aren’t accurate.
Good post and challenge to all the Carlsons and Tiabbis out there. That said, Zelenskiy has done himself no honor in the runup to this debacle.
Putin likes to surprise and dominate the narrative for as long as possible. By Biden pre-announcing Putin will attack, the Putin’s surprise is gone and Biden can claim “I told you so”. This is possibly also a nice distraction for Biden due to all the domestic issues and temporary spike in oil and gas prices will further slow the economy at the cost of slightly higher inflation print. NATO does not intend to attach Russia. For Russia, the attach has huge implications for future Russian security and prosperity – Putin does not like to gamble where the outcomes are not clear and potentially very bad for Russia and its people.
Germans and the French are quietly indicating that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO anytime soon and so the issue comes down the Ukranian provinces under Russian/separatist control and the Minsk agreement. Russians have some legitimacy when they say Minsk agreement is not being followed – its a general rule that you don’t mess with the Russians, since if you p*ss them off, they are vengeful – they can tolerate more pain and hardship that anyone else on the planet, especially if you threaten their security – their history is full of it enduring extreme pain. Just by abiding by the Minsk agreement may help calm down the situation, but I do see it simmering for a while rather than a short sharp resolution anytime soon.
Germans want Nordstream 2. They are not going to fall for the US trap and cancel. Shipping fancy BMWs and Mercedes in exchange for cheap natural gas is good bargain if both sides exchange it without threats of cut-off supplies and sanctions.
Russia has no ambitions on larger Europe, but it also wont back down if its security interests are threatened …restoring the Minsk agreement and other security guarantees quietly may be the only way to diffuse this situation.
‘The attack has huge implications for future Russian security and prosperity’?? In the 75 years I’ve been around I’ve never seen anything to indicate Russian security is in any danger from a source outside Russia. Hitler and Napoleon both learned the hard way that any invasion of Russia is a very painful losing endeavor. And it appears that if Russia attacks Ukraine that would indeed put their prosperity in question. It would certainly end any prosperity enjoyed by the Ukraine. I seriously doubt there is any sizable percentage of the Russian population that was in the least bit worried about any Russian security and their prosperity will never amount to much as long as the KGB is in charge. Apparently Putin does have ambitions for a larger Russia. Do the Germans want Nordstream 2? Of course they do … but at what price?? Certainly not if it threatens their own security. East Germany was once under Russian control.
“In the 75 years I’ve been around I’ve never seen anything to indicate Russian security is in any danger from a source outside Russia.”
Russian attack on Ukraine could easily back fire where Russia actually gets a very bloody nose exposing their weaker non-nuclear military capability, and right at their door step too – this could then easily spiral out of control if Ukrainian troops have to take the fight onto Russian soil which include those gray zones within Ukraine’s disputed borders. Having nuclear weapons does not necessarily make a country secure – the bear is growling because it doesn’t like whats going on around it and Ukraine is partly to blame for failure of Minsk II agreement. Putting this squarely on the Russians is a Western propaganda.
Incidentally — and I assume this goes without saying — the same rules apply to this conversation that applied to vaccine comments over the past two years: We have a zero tolerance policy for Kremlin agitprop, and I’ll enforce that with the same zeal that I enforced the vaccine misinformation policy. Anything that even looks like Kremlin spin will be removed posthaste and the poster banned permanently.
Historically, investors have done well buying when the shooting starts. H had that great quote from the Napoleonic period about buying at the sound of cannons, though I suspect the reason then was the profits to be made in war supplies.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see markets rally on an invasion. Those moves merely express (a hope of) reduced uncertainty, even if they do make investors look uncaring indeed.
This war will be in the heart of Europe as far as commodity flows go, not in a far-off land (apologies to people not living in G7). It will be grinding and bloody, if a siege of Kyiv is attempted. There will probably be economic consequences; even Germany should realize that NG doesn’t compensate for emboldening Russia (and a watching China). Inflation, tightening, and overvaluation won’t go away – the former may be worsened.
So I think (merely personal opinion) that an invasion rally will be only a ST trading oppty +/o another chance to degross.
“Anything that even looks like Kremlin spin will be removed posthaste and the poster banned permanently.”
I am assuming this wasn’t directed at me in particular due to my comments but I read a lot of diverse news paper that I deem at least some what reputable. We know our side of the story clearly in the media. That leads me to investigate the other side of the story beyond Putin is a thug, irrational, opportunistic and nationalistic. Do they have genuine grievances or is it all their fault for starting this thing….I firmly believe Ukraine’s and Russian understanding of the Minsk II treat and what happened in the subsequent aftermath is at the heart of this issue. Do we know what our friends are doing and whether its kosher ? Ofcourse we support them publicly but in private tell them off not to poke a bear in the eye.
No, it wasn’t directed at you or anyone else.
I just have to be very careful with this kind of thing because one of the reasons people subscribe here is that they get the best of both worlds: An “alternative” news source that’s also carefully curated and moderated.
It’s imperative that I safeguard the “carefully curated and moderated” aspect because it’s what gives people confidence in my work.
Readers know they get an independent perspective (i.e., outside of mainstream media) from me, but at the same time, they know I’m trustworthy, vigilant and willing to moderate comments around thorny issues.
Basically, I take a “better safe than sorry” approach around extremely sensitive stories. Sometimes, that comes at the expense of open exchange, but that’s a tradeoff I’m willing to make to ensure the integrity of the site.
But, again, no, it wasn’t directed at anyone personally.
Thanks heisenberg.. totally agree on “An “alternative” news source that’s also carefully curated and moderated.”
It’s why we are here.
The Alternate Media is a product of the Computer Age , but also of the fact that the Mainstream Media is a mere shadow of it’s reputability from the days of Walter Cronkite (and others). Objectivity has been stripped in proportion to it’s broadcast time. I always worry this reality occurred not accidentally , The results can also have negative consequences because now anything can be news and not curated and moderated as H…. indicates .
I think reading The Guardian and Le Figaro (use chrome browser’s translate feature) gives a more nuanced perspective on the situation. I find Bloomberg , Reuters and others lack the fast evolving details other than the beat of the war drums.
Stratfor.com has a “Snapshot” titled “DDOS Attack, Likely Russian, Knocks Ukrainian Government and Banking Sites Offline”
What’s interesting is the first sentence which begins: “As the odds of a Russian invasion decline. . .”
“Simma down, nah!” [ Cheri Oteri ]
Russia threatened? Let’s be honest, nobody wants Russia. Western politicians should be telling the news media that daily. Western leaders should be telling Putin to spend his energies on quality of life for his people. As stated above, the Russian people seem eternally resigned to pain and suffering under the thumb of a changing cast of autocrats. When’s the last time anyone outside of the Russian sphere went shopping for a Russian made car, smartphone, refrigerator or piece of silicon, not to mention a thousand other mainstays of developed countries. Russia has plenty of smart IT people. Instead of creating global social media brands they only manage cybercrime. The west should be continually reminding the Russian populace that they deserve better.
Increasingly, looks like Putin’s objective is the “rationalization” of Ukraine and Russia’s shared border via the annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk. Call it Crimea 2.0. And, as in that case, I suspect the West’s response, after the imposition of some not-too-harsh sanctions, will be a collective shrug.