Fed Speculation In Overdrive Leaves Markets In Limbo
The US data calendar is sparse in what'll be a holiday-shortened week dominated by Fed speculation.
At this point, a March hike is a foregone conclusion and market participants of all sorts (so, not just Bill Ackman) are beginning to seriously ponder the prospect of a surprise, either in the form of a 50bps move or even a hike at this month's meeting.
The latter seems exceptionally unlikely, especially considering the pre-FOMC blackout period leaves officials with no opportunity to signal the
H-Man, the Fed can signal in January when the black-out ends and they start talking with almost 45 days before the March meeting. If we get another hot print on inflation in February, they will be chattering. They have read the Kaufman/Ackman comments so don’t rule out a surprise. The signal will be the chatter.
Talking about bringing home the bacon: Here is the whole butcher shop – buy MLFNF
Hirtzer writes, “Higher ham prices are also boosting hog futures.” Pretty sure that’s not how the pigs would see it.
Scary movie afficionados will definitely want to be live on Powell’s next press conference…
The Fed Put is gone. Wile E. Coyote hasn’t seen the abyss yet. Goldman is out there pumping and offloading stocks as they are wont to do when they see the looming crash.
I’m keeping an eye on retail traders inflows. We’re usually the bag holders. Once inflows become outflows I’m loading up on Tesla puts.