Income, Religion, Politics: US Vaccine Demand Explained

“US states with older populations, higher incomes, lower religion shares, and higher Democratic vote shares have higher demand,” Goldman wrote, in a new note dedicated to the implications of COVID vaccine hesitancy for economic forecasting.

That brief quote captures quite a bit in just a few words. And it probably stirred up an emotional response in many readers.

I’ve addressed vaccine hesitancy in these pages on too many occasions to count since it became clear last year that the world was about to embark on a massive inoculation push. It was clear from the beginning which demographics in the US were least likely to get a shot.

The juxtaposition between, on one hand, Donald Trump’s eagerness to win the vaccine race and take credit for immunizing America and, on the other, his desire to perpetuate false narratives about the seriousness of the situation and amplify anti-science conspiracy theories, was quite something to behold. The same man who championed “Operation Warp Speed” also introduced the world to the novel virus-fighting concepts articulated in the following infamous quote,

I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning. I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute – that’s pretty powerful.

Yes, that was indeed some “pretty powerful” stuff. And the former president’s complicated relationship with science was “pretty powerful” when it came to creating confusion among supporters who, while perfectly willing to leap off a cliff for Trump, simultaneously harbored reservations about vaccines based on some of the same conspiratorial narratives he himself amplified.

I should note (as I sometimes do) that none of the above is partisan or “anti-Trump.” It just is what it is. Trump launched an aggressive (and ultimately successful) push to develop multiple vaccines, which he proudly touted, only to undermine faith in them by refusing to disavow the kind of anti-science rhetoric espoused to this very day by some his most ardent supporters, including Marjorie Taylor Greene.

To be sure, there are legitimate concerns about the vaccines. The AstraZeneca shot was plagued by various issues, some health-related, some logistical, for example. And the J&J shot was briefly halted over similar safety worries. Just Wednesday, Israel said it’s looking into a possible link between the Pfizer shot and heart inflammation in young men.

But such concerns, I’d argue, have far less explanatory power when it comes to vaccine hesitancy than demographic and social factors, especially in the US.

“While US vaccine demand is middling compared to other countries, there are big differences across states,” Goldman said, in the same note mentioned here at the outset. Citing Census Bureau data, the bank noted that “vaccination rates are highest in Vermont (82%) and lowest in Mississippi (at 44%) with generally higher rates in the Northeast and West than in the South and Midwest.”

Needless to say, that’s not a coincidence.

Goldman did the math. As the figure on the right (above) shows, age, income, religion and Democratic vote share “explain most of the variation in demand between US states,” the bank said.

At the end of the day, one thing seems to speak louder than age, partisan affiliation and God, though. The figure (below) shows what happened when Ohio announced it would hand out five $1 million prizes to vaccinated adults in the state.

Nothing further.