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JPMorgan: Equity Bull Market Set To Resume. Central Banks Matter More Than Fiscal Stimulus
Over the past two months, the consensus narrative vis-à-vis policy and stimulus generally revolved around the notion that central banks are no longer the primary driver.
"At this point, monetary policy is not the most decisive factor," Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic said in September. "In its current form, it is likely to stay in place with possibly slight adjustments, and remain reactive to fiscal policy, which together with advances in vaccine developments, should remain the main drivers
Thank you for perfectly stating the mid-long term thesis, under which I am currently invested. A lot of SPY with some toppings of FAAMG and a few of my favorite, but doing poorly, dividend payers that I can not bring myself to sell.
I am actually sleeping better than when I rationally moved to cash last February but then quickly was taught a lesson- if you get out of the stock market, but you are trying to be smart and time some “outs and back ins”, you better know when to get back in (which I did not). Now, I am a believer (at least from an investment performance perspective) that what currently matters the most is monetary and fiscal largesse- which I believe will happen regardless of election outcomes.
At least until fundamentals look like they will matter more than the printing of USD’s. I am never 100% confident about what I am doing- but that is probably normal.
So, stocks are going up no matter what.
BTW – has Panigirtzoglou done any more work on his Covid model recently?
You are thinking of Kolanovic’s model.
Given the fraught politics around the pandemic, I suspect that Kolanovic is more reticent to make public pronouncements regarding the same.
I actually sold everything today and bought VIXY. Think we will see another buying opp.