An Eleventh Hour Election Warning For Traders And Investors

An Eleventh Hour Election Warning For Traders And Investors

Editor's note: The following piece first ran here on Sunday. We're keeping it featured prominently on Election Day for reasons I hope are clear. Very often, when I use the word "pivotal" to preemptively dramatize a forthcoming week with a jam-packed docket of potentially market moving events, there's a bit of built-in, implicit hyperbole. The same goes for mainstream media outlets. Indeed, it's often the weeks billed as "pivotal" that end up being anything but. It's not the "known unknowns"
Subscribe or log in to read the rest of this content.

20 thoughts on “An Eleventh Hour Election Warning For Traders And Investors

  1. The algo traders are perfectly able to classify, screen and weight sources by credibility. If they choose not to, it is because their trading results are improved by including known misinformation. Indeed, they don’t need “information”, just volatility.

    It is long past time to consider the constructive purpose of the stock market, and to prune away the invasive weeds that are taking over the nutritious vegetables.

    I’d start with a confiscatory tax on ultra short term (seconds, minutes) trading of securities and derivatives, algo or otherwise, a punitive tax on very short term trading (hours, days), and a discouraging tax on short term trading (weeks).

    1. Jyl — great point. It has been a long time since the role of financial markets was mainly to bring together those who need capital with those with capital to invest. Now the main purpose is to act as a playground for highly leveraged speculators.

  2. We no longer get unbiased news. If you are a republican or trump supporter and you go to Fox they will tell you what you want to hear. If you are a democrat or trump hater then CNN will feed you what you want to hear. Both supporters will claim their news channel is true. Even on here i hear people claim CNN is different to Fox but i have listened to CNN report on things i had watched and completely change the message. I have never known a time when so much propaganda has appeared in mainstream news.

    1. CNN is categorically different from Fox News. I’m tired of hearing that disputed in comments here and I’m done countenancing it. Fox News is a blight on society and if you’ve done any research (any at all) on Fox’s history you are acutely aware of that. Fox should be shut down. It’s as simple as that. It’s hate speech, it promotes violence, it champions narratives about racial superiority, and it promotes xenophobia. There is nothing (nothing at all) good about Fox.

      1. I’ve been reading Stephanie Kelton on MMT this morning. She explains quite clearly how imbedded misconceptions about economics have caused bad and sometimes terrible outcomes for humans. Reminds me of earlier periods when the powers that be couldn’t/wouldn’t acknowledge that the earth wasn’t the center of the universe. This flaw seems to be persistent in human societies. Libero’s thinking about Fox News vs CNN is another example. Is there something inherent in the human psyche that means we’ll never move beyond this phenomenon. We’re busy destroying ourselves now as we see this play out with Covid, Climate change and on it goes.

      2. Amen.

        Five years ago I made a slow roundtrip car trip between New York City and Key West. Every single motel where I stayed south of the Mason-Dixon line – upscale or downscale – blared Fox News on the TV in the breakfast room.

        The pervasiveness of Fox News has sown discord, disinformation and dispute among a huge portion of the American populace. Without Fox, we might not have had a Trump, because I doubt most Fox News viewers ever dare to view or read a differing viewpoint.

        CNN leans left, of course, but it is not in the business of outright lying.

        1. It’s always been tempting to blame the media; I certainly did, growing up in the shadow of Murdoch’s UK tabloids in the 80s. Over time, however, I came to realise that his commercial and editorial successes are better seen as symptom rather than cause; more reflective than causative. 30 years of neo-liberal orthodoxy later, and we have witnessed the ostracisation of ever greater numbers of people on both sides of the Atlantic. The great recession was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back, leading to people in the Anglophone world looking for a different kind of answer. Thus we were left with Brexit, Trump and a kind of politics that robbed us of our humanity. There’s a chance this week for you lot (I say this with genuine affection) to collectively realise that whatever our various national disagreements on policy, the conditions in which it is made desperately need to improve. That’s another way in which this week is truly ‘pivotal’.

          1. I was not totally blaming media. There is a disturbingly negative symbiotic relationship between Fox News and its viewers.

            I’m guessing here, but I sense most of those viewers are ill-educated; never watch liberal news stations or follow analysis outside their comfort zone; would not be caught dead reading The NY Times, BloombergNews, WashingtonPost, The Economist, The New Yorker, New Republic, etc; don’t travel the world except in the cocoon of a cruise ship; rarely study world history, other religions or alternate systems of government (“study” being the operative word).

            For most of those people, I imagine Fox News is an echo chamber, bolstering their pre-conceived, unexamined opinions, devoid of many facts.

  3. Trump and Fox in part are a result/ creation of the destruction of the fairness doctrine. Estimates are that he got $1 billion of excess coverage in the Republican primaries in 2016. Les Moonves, head of CBS-paraphrase now- he may not be good for the country but he is great for our business. That type of attitude in the media mixed with other social problems and neglect of the bottom 2/3 of our country for the last 40 years got us to where we are today. Hillary was excoriated for emails on a server and Benghazi- as a violation of national security. Neither turned out to be much of anything. That would not even make the top 200 for the corruption and security impairment before and during Trump’s first election and first term. The media dropped the ball that is for sure. Fox is not a serious news organization but an entertainment operation with a distorted news division attached to supplement/add to entertainment. It shows the lack of education about our government and how news is produced by the majority of Americans. The whole thing is just plain sad and worrisome- even if Trump and his GOP enablers get beat badly. The genie is out of the bottle and it is going to be difficult to repair the damage. Trump has shown the way for future would be American demagogues in the 21st century….

    1. The optimist might say that America had to experience the disgrace of the Trump presidency to shock it into moving the country properly forward. The list of needed reforms is large, but perhaps the country is on the verge of beginning to take them on, soberly.

    1. I do not think it is going to be that close or hard to call. But I still think you are probably right on the VIX. Can anyone possibly imagine how unstable Trump will be win or lose? Win (not very likely still possible)- no guardrails at all. Lose- all bets on behavior until January 20, 2020 are off- the bitterness and blame game will be extraordinary, not to mention the egregious pardons and outright attempt to get the last of the grifts in. He will obviously be no help in a transition if he loses and probably be downright destructive to Biden and anyone in his path….

      1. There is a guard rail and I surmise there are bridges he coudl cross that even McConnel and 20 Con men from the ReplubiCon party could agree is too far. HEck even I could write an article of impeachment and resolution to remove from office in the am and have it voted in both chambers the pm.

Speak your mind

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.