Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today for as little as $7/month
Already have an account? log in
Trump Kills Stimulus Talks In Dramatic About-Face. Says Negotiations To Resume ‘After I Win’
On Saturday, during the first day of a short visit to Walter Reed following his COVID-19 diagnosis, Donald Trump opened his Twitter app and implored lawmakers to strike a bipartisan deal on another virus relief package.
The nation, Trump said, in all-caps, "wants and needs stimulus". "Work together and get it done", he exhorted.
To briefly recapitulate, there are two stumbling blocks to a deal. The first is the gap between Steve Mnuchin's $1.62 trillion offer and Nancy Pelosi's $2.2 trillion,
‘roid rage? It may well be, no?
Absolutely.
Let’s hope he doesn’t pull a Wilson and stroke out before Nov. 3.
Talk about chaos!
I was wondering that too. It’s the drugs talking. I don’t see how this is a winning strategy for Trump in the election. Maybe he is just looking for popularity with his most committed base, as illogical as that seems to be.
just like in 2016, he appears to be doing things that most others would consider as ways to NOT get elected. they couldve passed stimulus and he could have taken credit for ‘working across the aisle to help americans’; or ‘we needed this now, and after im elected it’ll be even better!”; and then further embellished any detail he wanted.
ned davis research shows that when the stock mkt declines by more than 2% from end of second convention to election day, the incumbent rarely wins. also incumbents are 0 for 6 in election years with a recession and/or 20% mkt decline.
but then if he loses, he knows he faces the DA in NY for tax fraud—if reelected he could postpone that further.
Trump has no plan and reacts in the moment. There is no long or even short term plan. His time horizon is the next 24-48 hour news cycle and depends on his mood. This is the type of things the founding fathers feared- which is why we supposedly have checks and balances. Assuming a Democratic sweep, you can bet things like tariffs and appropriation powers of the president will be reviewed for possible adjustment/curtailement. There will be a bill requiring disclosure of income taxes too- and I would also guess that the Hatch Act will be stengthened more. I would not be surprised to see the relationship of the Department of Justice to the executive be distanced too. The guess is that Presidential power will be curtailed if there is a sweep.
Could be 1) Trump deciding to stop trying for a stimulus bill, 2) Trump trying to get the best PR from McConnell’s decision, 3) a brinksmanship sort of negotiation strategy, or 4) irrationality from a man who should be hospitalized. Or a combination. Seems unhelpful to his re-election campaign, which raises the possibility that McConnell/Senate Republicans have given up on Trump’s re-election and somehow think that sabotaging the top of the ticket won’t hurt their own re-election campaigns.
Or maybe the GOP as a whole has recognized they have no chance in November so are doing their best to tank the economy so hard so that it remains bad for the next two years, thereby improving their chances in’22 and ‘24?
That’s the thought I had. A president confident in his reelection would dangle Barrett out as a reason for his base to be excited about voting for him, and a pre election stimulus package would boost the start of his second term. A president who thinks he’s going to lose will purposely sink the economy of the next guy and make sure that his legacy is in place before he’s voted out. His actions belie his words.
This is what I’m thinking. Had a big bag of doo-doo to the incoming administration.
Meanwhile, we teeter on economic depression.
This is the raging, transactional, desperate Trump. Basically to his thinking, re-elect me and get that much needed stimulus. It’s a thinly disguised threat. Given how unlikely it is he will be re-elected, at this point, I venture to say no stimulus until January 20, assuming Dems take back the Senate and eliminate the filibuster.
Remember, everything Trump does is about Trump and all that matters to Trump, at the moment, is his re-election.
It’s always difficult to tell what might be going on in his mind. But I think he wants voters to read this as a threat. Something like this: Vote for me, and I’ll pass a stimulus bill “immediately” after the election. So the economy will start to turn around in one month. If I don’t win (and am unable to steal the election), I’ll do nothing. Even with Biden coming in January, there will not be a stimulus package for four months, and that will tank the economy in ways that will last far longer.
Do a websearch for “Roid Rage”.
It seems to explain the sudden about-face.
Covita, the drama queen, threatens to sink the economy if she does not get the people’s adulation, on the same day this cruel year takes away another true American treasure, Eddie dies, Covita cries, is there no mercy in 2020?
I would like to hear a bit more about the democrats hand in this failure or is totally a republican screw up. It seems to me there are 2 groups involved here neither of which seem to be working very hard for a resolution. Personally i don’t like Trump but i also don’t like reading fake news on CNN (the same goes for Fox from the opposite position). It seems to me there must be blame on both sides (even if Trump deserves the lions share).
I will grant that for the last few months, it has seemed that all that Pelosi and the Dems have needed to do is … exactly nothing. No deal and nothing for trump to latch on to. Just “keep trying” and make sure that in the end the other guys wouldn’t make the necessary deal, thus helping to get trump tossed. Dems could even rationalize this with the notion that, even though many would suffer between now and Jan because of their “do exactly nothing” strategy, the sad lot of citizens would be more effectively alleviated after a Dem sweep. There’s simply nothing more important than dumping trump.
With plenty of takers on the GOP side. Why give more money to black & brown people? Most will not vote GOP. And the new white/southern/rural GOP base will be happy to forgo some short-term help to help make certain that “those people” keep getting less than them. (Until cuts to Medicare force them to bring Old Aunt Tilly back home from the nursing home.)
It’s a win-win!
Dem side is pretty simple. House started 3-ish months ago at $3TR, came down to $2.2TR. Initially resisted piecemeal bills for different industries, in past week were willing to do one for airlines. Initially wanted money earmarked for mail voting and remote school, but haven’t heard anything about that for months.
Rep side is more complicated. Senate didn’t consider anything until recently, as McConnell said wasn’t sure more stimulus was needed. Then McConnell initially started talking about $0.5TR. Republicans were stuck there while Meadow was handling it for WH, I think H pointed out that Meadows has historically been an obstructionist not a dealmaker. Mnuchin took the reins back he got to $1.6TR but Senate Republicans were variously at $0.5TR to $1.0TR and McConnell was conspicuously silent.
What should have happened is for all concerned to agree to something with a price tag that was ambiguous enough that Repubs could call it <$2.0TR and Dems could call it >$2.0TR – easy enough to do. Or, do a main bill comfortably below $2.0TR plus some industry-specific bills (airlines, small businesses, schools, etc) to get it above $2.0TR. Point being, both sides could declare victory to their bases, since the bases consume different media it hardly matters if their stories agree.
This has been botched like everything else the Trump administration does. Trump has huge power in the Republican party, with so many Republican Senators in tough campaigns he had a lot of leverage, but he can’t focus on one thing for more than a couple of days. One moment he’s urging a big package with his name on the checks, the next moment he’s moved on to something else. He really hasn’t been in the driver’s seat, and it seems like McConnell is driving to a different destination.
While it maybe steroid induced mood lability, and of course Trump is still transactional and desperate; there may be some advantage for him. First, the Republican Senato cannot seem to come to consensus and Pelosi is playing hardball, so that he likely can’t make it happen. Given that, 1) he blames the Democrats along standard anti-democrat lines: Dems holding out for bail outs of their evil democrat socialist states; 2) he touts his supreme court pick; 3) he praises his economy; and 4) he holds out the big payout if elected. This is typical Trump. I try not to underestimate the animosity towards Dems, “socialism”, abortion, Pelosi, Fiscal irresponsibility, etc.
It could be as simple as he thought the market moved yesterday because of him and then found out it was based on him leaving.
Dexamethasone is a helluva drug.
Trump appears to have thrown in the towel on winning the election. That in no way means that he has given up on a second presidential term.
From this point, it is highly likely that Trump will utilize Barr’s masterplan to dispute election results with the Supreme Court deciding on the matter. Which is why Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation ‘before’ the election is of such importance.
Are there any available, inpatient psychiatric beds available to Walter Reed?
CORRECTION: A B-school classmate who happens to be an MD corrected me. ROID RAGE is a reaction to a different kind of steroid.
The president’s med has different side-effects
Actually Dexamethasone (aka decadron) is used in ~6 mg doses for hospitalized patients which is equivalent to ~40 mg of Prednisone (what people are more commonly prescribed) and which can commonly induce mood problems (depression, mild manic symptoms, anxiety) as well as measurably diminished declarative memory. It is true the ROID RAGE is typically associated with anabolic steriods (such as dianabol) which are used (often in excess) by body builders, but Dexamethasone can have striking effects too.