Cast Members
Wherever they end up, negotiations around another virus relief package in the US haven't gone anywhere in nearly two months.
This is a "don't let the headlines fool you" situation. On Wednesday, The White House and Democrats were keen to say there's been "progress" over the past couple of days. And that may well be true. Indeed, the market could be looking at a compromise bill by the end of the week. The House will vote on (and pass) a $2.2 trillion package if no such deal materializes.
The po
Good news there about Goofy.
They can Mickey Mouse around all they want. Some mediocre PMIs and retail sales are no reason to believe we’re out of the woods yet. What could possibly happen in the next six months to set back the reflation trade and turn to some risk-off for the market? Oh, I get it, Tinker Bell is going to wave a wand make unemployment 3.2$ and real GDP growth 2.1%.
A chart of the trend for GDP shows that there could be a gap of about $10T over the next seven years compared to the trend in GDP prior to COVID. Same sawtooth like we saw out of GFC.
We’re talking $10T of GDP that is lost, gone, never going to happen. That’s a lot of economic activity. It’s no time to for Munchin to be Goofy. Spend big like the Magic Castle’s life depended on it…because, in many ways, it does.
Not gonna happen. McConnell, Thune, Barrasso, Blunt, Ernst, Young, and _______ [fill in the blank: Graham, Cornyn, Cruz, Tillis, Crapo, Rubio, Collins, Gardner, etc.] are the Seven Dwarfs.
Shotgun diplomacy. Donald’s favorite trick, therefore do not think it will work on Donald. Expect airline stocks to go down like a 7% grade I navigated earlier today.
The probability of stimulus seems indistinguishable from zero. Add stimulus to the list of things markets don’t care about, including the path of Covid and possible second wave. The obsession is about the momentum of the recovery which looks fairly impressive, certainly stronger than anyone was forecasting a few months ago with most were fretting the expiration of benefits at the end of July. Folks, its now October. Move on,